argument235 jingjing临考互拍^_^

jingjingtousUID：2164820

TOPIC: ARGUMENT235 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.
"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."

提纲：
1 format 不一定是导致听众下降的原因
2 没证据表明older people prefer new to music
3 调查不足以说明问题，喜欢政治不代表就不能喜欢music（PS：喜欢是一种自由和权利）
4 邻市news 的成功不代表在该地能成功。

Before accepting the manager's recommendation that KNOW radio station should switch its programming from rock-and-roll music to a news format, I find the argument is not sufficiently supported by the evidence given. The manager seems to excessively rely on the unsubstantiated evidence and implicit assumptions which render his conclusion fundamentally groundless.

To begin with, the manager unfairly assumes that it is the programming format that contributes to the declination of their listeners. However, the author provides no evidence to prove the correlation between the format and the number of their listeners. It is entirely possible that KNOW' s audience become reluctant to listen due to its poor transmitter, for that matter, perhaps the original rock-and-roll music was mixed with some other styles of one which is not welcome by the natives. Thus, without ruling out these possibilities, the manager's conclusion seems too pale to convince us.

In addition, the manager's assumption that older people prefer the new temporal to rock-and-roll music is completely unsupported. The occurrence of the two events: the increasing of older people and the decreasing of its listeners does not necessarily indicate the causal relationship between them. Apparently, we are not informed that older people express their aversion to rock-and-roll music, on the contrary, it is highly possible that they are the dedicator of this style of music which has ever significantly influence them when they were young. For that matter, the manager also overlooks other factors-maybe the number of young persons who are inclined to such kind of music has increased spontaneously. Furthermore, the declining of sales of recorded music in the area is not a good indication that local citizens become more careless about music, especially rock-and-roll music. For one thing, there is a possibility that the sales of rock-and-roll music increased while other types of music descend and consequently the total amount of music record declined. For another thing, the author fails to confirm that people who purchase music record are those who always listen to KNOW' s radio programs. Therefore, the decreasing of sales of recorded music cannot prove local residents become no longer interest in rock-and-roll music. Thus, the manager's assumption that clings to the dubious evidence cannot bolster his conclusion.

Finally, the merely survey which shows people who are informed more about politics become less interest about music can lend scant support to the conclusion. Besides, there is no reason why people take interest in politics cannot also be fascinated in music and the sustainment of their propensity is also open to doubt In addition, the continuous news station in neighboring cities cannot guarantee the success of KNOW in this area. As a result, the manager cannot draw any firm conclusion merely basing on this dubious evidence.

In sum, the argument is problematic in several aspects as discussed above. To bolster it, the author should provide strong evidence that it is the increased number of older people in their listening area that leads the declination of their listeners. To further support this argument, the manager should inform us the local residents became more interested in politics than music than ever before.

快考试了，请大家多多指教才是！