Argument170 留链接回拍

cavanaUID: 2178782

TOPIC: ARGUMENT 170 - For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. This trend began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. But scientists have now devised a process for killing the bacteria. Once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow.
WORDS:406         TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-2-19
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1 人们愿意以Gulf Coast oysters两倍价买northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters和从Gulf Coast oysters发现有害物质只是时间顺序， 并没有因果关系
2 这种设备能完全杀灭有害物质吗， 杀死有害物质的同时会不会也破坏了营养成分和味道， 有这些疑问存在，人们不见得就愿意买Gulf Coast oysters
3 即使人们愿意以同样价钱买了，因为设备和宣传提高成本，Gulf Coast oysters的卖主也不见得盈利更多。
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The argument is sound and convincing at the first glance, that once the consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast (GC) oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast (AC) oysters. However, the argument can hardly bear further consideration since there are several flaws in it.

First, the trend that consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for  the northeast AC oysters as for GC oysters is just after the discovery that there are harmful bacteria in a few raw GC oysters. It is hardly to establish a causal relationship between the trend and the discovery, because they may just happened as a time order. People who began to pay higher price for AC oyster may have other reasons, like that the AC oysters are more delicious than  GC oysters, or AC oysters are larger than the GC ones.

Second, if the reason for why people refer AC oysters to GC ones is actually as the arguer claims-- the harmful bacteria in GC oysters. Whether people are likely to be willing to be pay as much for GC ones as AC ones is still uncertain. People may still have suspicious about the safety of GC oysters, for they may doubt that whether the all harmful bacteria in GC oysters are killing, and whether the nutrition and delicious tasty of GC oysters will be decreased in the process of killing bacteria. With so many uncertain questions, people are not likely to pay the GC oysters the same price as AC ones.

Third, if the assumption that people are willing to pay as much for GC oysters as AC ones, how could the arguer ensure a greater profits after purchase the devise and acknowledge the consumers the increased safety? The expense of the devise to kill the harmful bacteria in GC oysters and of advertisement to acknowledge people that the increased safety , will enhance the cost of producing the GC oysters, and the profits are probably less than before.

To sum up, the arguer needs a detailed and convincing survey to check out the exact reason for the trend that consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. And a budget to prove that greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow.

handsomeUID: 203934

我语言能力不如你，很难再语言给你什么建议：（，只能说一下我写这篇argu的思路
The arug
1. 花两倍价钱购买，和发现有害细菌不能够成因果关系。原因和你的差不多
2. 专家的方法不一定能有效
3. 即使有效，不能保证不会破坏GC的味道，营养。
4. 即使没有破坏味道等，也不能保证人们花费同样价钱购买。可能现在AC的价格高正是因为人们无法购买GC，价格被提高。也可能原来GC的价格就没有那么高。
5. 即使人们愿意花费那么的价钱购买，渔民也未必赢利。1. 杀菌的花费。2. 宣传 3. 可能AC的开采成本本来就很高，比如这里风浪大。
感觉和你差不多，可能你的论证更加清晰一些。

我的argument147