argument109 同主题写作,VMARCH,互拍~

savagettUID: 2134686

109.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Maple City newspaper.
"Twenty years ago Pine City established strict laws designed to limit the number of new buildings that could be constructed in the city. Since that time the average housing prices in Pine City have increased considerably.
Chestnut City, which is about the same size as Pine City, has over the past twenty years experienced an increase in average housing prices similar to Pine City, but Chestnut City never established any laws that
limit new building construction. So it is clear that laws limiting new construction have no effect on average housing prices. So if Maple City were to establish strict laws that limit new building construction, these
laws will have no effect on average housing prices."
TIME 40:00(超时) WORDS 523(536)   TIME 2-24
开始写得时候,题目太长,绕了半天.
第一: 两个城市间的类比不足以说明法律没有用 F.A.
第二: 这个观察来自过去20年的经验不能说明现在也不许要限制
第三 M城自己的特殊性没有考虑
所以节目不需要法律来限制建筑不可行.

The assertion that the Maple City need not to establish laws to limit new constructions, which would not help to raise the average housing prices. To support the claim, the author cites the contrast between Pine City and Chestnut City, which indicates the restriction is not effective. The final suggestion is flawed with a false analogy and an unwarranted conclusion.

Firstly, the analogy between Pine City which established the laws and Chestnut City which did not have them is suspicious. With the same consequence that both two cities have a considerable increase on the average housing prices, the author wrongly concludes that the restriction on city constructions is not operative. It is entirely possible that Chestnut City which has increased in housing prices without laws might have increased more if they took the law. On the other hand, it is due to these laws to restrict the new buildings construed in the city, that Pine City enjoys a rise in housing prices. Unless the author was able the explain the location, the development, the population and many other factors are all the same in the two cities, hardly can the author draw the conclusion that the laws have no effect on the housing prices from the analogy. In short, the two distinct cities are unable to demonstrate the effect of the restrictions.

Secondly, even if the comparison between the two cities is reasonable, which means the law have not too much effect. The conciliation is based on the past twenty years observation which is not statistically significant. As we all know, there are many factors contributing to the housing prices. Nowadays, people usually prefer to live in a city with less noise, less population and convenient transportation. Therefore, the limitation on the number of new buildings constructed in the city is of great importance. Time goes on and need changes, so the laws to restrict the new constructions is urgent and helpful. Unable to consider this new trend, the conclusion that the laws will have no effect is too hastily.

Last but not least, neglecting the unique situation of Maple City, the suggestion that it need not restrictions on newly built constructions is unconvincing. The Maple City might have a completely different situation from either Pine City or Chestnut City. Suppose Maple City is a developing city, which attracts many investment and tourists, new buildings and hotels are intended to be built here. This will absolutely destroy the living environment of Maple, therefore resulted in the decrease of the average housing prices. Under this circumstance, the city have sufficient reasons to establish laws to limit the quantity of new constructions. With such scenario, the suggestion that the city need not laws is questionable.

To sum up, the suggestion that the Maple City has no need for laws to restrict new constructions because it will not cause the rise in housing prices is indefensible. To better bolster the suggestion, the author should illustrate the development of Maple City clearly in order to prove the city need not limitation on new constructions in recent years. Furthermore, the cited examples should be more persuasive to indicate the prices will not be influenced whether the laws was established or not.

[ 本帖最后由 savagett 于 2006-2-24 16:41 编辑 ]