argument6 敲完了 贴上来 第二片 呵呵

cailiheng8583UID: 2188359

Argument6
The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
'A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money.

分析：爵士音乐在Monroe非常流行（分三个方面  针对那三句话驳斥）
      即使爵士音乐在Monroe流行是真的  能不能保证我们的club完全占有本地市场？
      即使占有本地市场  保证我们会赚钱？（攻击study）
Words 661

In this argument, the arguer cites several irrelevant facts and an unconvincing study to get the ungrounded conclusion that a jazz music club in Monroe will be tremendously profitable enterprise. The argument is not cogent as following reasons.

IN the first place, it is really the fact that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe, as the arguer claims? First, the arguer mentions that over 100,000 people attended Monroe’s jazz festival last summer. Whether all the people are Monroe citizens? Maybe only a minor portion of the people, perhaps no more than 0.1 percent, which means the total number is 100 at best, are local citizens. Furthermore, are those participants are all jazz fans? It is of great possibility that a majority of them only went there for fun, such as seeing the fierce and sound performance, choosing Monroe the place to appoint lovers and so on. Second, the fact that only several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe may because they are native residents and Monroe owns other characteristics, perhaps good transport, well-developed economy, appealing circumstance and other the like, but not for its “many” jazz fans. Additionally, the reason for the fact that ‘jazz Nightly’ is the highest-rated radio program in Monroe may be that audiences in other places favor this program and listeners in Monroe only take only a little portion, may be no more than one of two hundred, of the total. All these evidence is insufficient to conclude that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe.

IN the second place, even if accepted that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe, we cannot make sure that C Note, a jazz club the arguer proposed, will have the local market all. First, there is no evidence provided that now all jazz fans only go to the nearest club, which is 65 away, without playing in other places like homes, squares and so on. Even conceding that all fans in Monroe go to the nearest club for fun, we cannot expect that they will custom C Note only, because the currently nearest jazz club is 65 miles away. Maybe some qualities of the currently nearest club, like soft atmosphere in the club and beautiful sights around the club, draw the fans’ attraction not only for playing jazz but also harmonious circumstance.

Finally, even conceded that C Note will have the local market all, it is of no sure that the C Note cannot help but make money because a recent national study shows that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. First, the reliability of the study is questionable. The arguer provides no detail information or date to prove that the sample and the research process of the study is representative and reasonable, all of which may contribute greatly to the results. Apart from the problem of the study, the fact that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment is insufficient to conclude that all the money will be cost in jazz club. There are many alternatives may consume the money. For example, the fan may spend the money, perhaps most of it, on equipment purchasing in order to keep the pace of development of trends in jazz music area. Even if we accept that all the study shows are convincing, the national wide evidence may well be suitable to local area in Monroe. Because conditions in every part of a country may vary greatly for many reasons that difference in economy, sex proportion, and age bracket and proportion. As we know that people who are in old age may prefer classical music but sound jazz music, which may have a certain influence on disease likely to happen on the elders.

In conclusion, a cogent argument must base on convincing study and detail information and date, which provide necessary elements for a reasonable logical deduction to reach a convincing suggestion or result. However, the arguer fails to do that.

cailiheng8583UID: 2188359

怎么没有人发一下看法呢

cplpsyUID: 2169409

In this argument, the arguer cites several irrelevant facts and an unconvincing study to get the ungrounded conclusion that a jazz music club in Monroe will be tremendously profitable enterprise. The argument is not cogent as following reasons.

IN the first place, it is (is it)really the fact that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe, as the arguer claims? First, the arguer mentions that over 100,000 people attended Monroe’s jazz festival last summer. Whether all the people are Monroe citizens? Maybe only a minor portion of the people, perhaps no more than 0.1 percent, which means the total number is 100 at best, are local citizens. Furthermore, are those participants are all jazz fans? It is of great possibility that a majority of them only went there for fun, such as seeing the fierce and sound performance, choosing Monroe the place to appoint lovers and so on. Second, the fact that only（删除） several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe may because they are native residents and Monroe owns other characteristics, perhaps good transport, well-developed economy, appealing circumstance and other the like, but not for its “many” jazz fans. Additionally, the reason for the fact that ‘jazz Nightly’ is the highest-rated radio program in Monroe may be that audiences in other places favor this program and listeners in Monroe only take only a little portion, may be no more than one of two hundred, of the total. All these evidence is insufficient to conclude that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe.

IN the second place, even if accepted that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe, we cannot make sure that C Note, a jazz club the arguer proposed, will have the local market all. First, there is no evidence provided that now all jazz fans only go to the nearest club, which is 65 away, without playing in other places like homes, squares and so on. Even conceding that all fans in Monroe go to the nearest club for fun, we cannot expect that they will custom C Note only, because the currently nearest jazz club is 65 miles away. Maybe some qualities of the currently nearest club, like soft atmosphere in the club and beautiful sights around the club, draw the fans’ attraction not only for playing jazz but also harmonious circumstance.

Finally, even conceded that C Note will have the local market all, it is of no sure that the C Note cannot help but make money because a recent national study shows that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. First, the reliability of the study is questionable. The arguer provides no detail information or date to prove that the sample and the research process of the study is representative and reasonable, all of which may contribute greatly to the results. Apart from the problem of the study, the fact that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment is insufficient to conclude that all the money will be cost in jazz club. There are many alternatives may consume the money. For example, the fan may spend the money, perhaps most of it, on equipment purchasing in order to keep the pace of development of trends in jazz music area. Even if we accept that all the study shows are convincing, the national wide evidence may well be suitable to local area in Monroe. Because conditions in every part of a country may vary greatly for many reasons that difference in economy, sex proportion, and age bracket and proportion. As we know that people who are in old age may prefer classical music but sound jazz music, which may have a certain influence on disease likely to happen on the elders.
In conclusion, a cogent argument must base on convincing study and detail information and date（data）, which provide necessary elements for a reasonable logical deduction to reach a convincing suggestion or result. However, the arguer fails to do that.

非常不错，你的思路和我的很像！所以就看了，可是我没有你分析的到位。自己还要加油啊！
一个小疑问：太极端的例子是不是不要举啊，比如jazz会导致心脏病，或者0.1%？

[ 本帖最后由 cplpsy 于 2006-3-23 20:07 编辑 ]