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提纲:1,机场旅客增加不代表来旅游, 而且不一定代表总体游客就增加了
2,人均收入增加不代表经济好
3,即使好了不一定是ecotourism造成的
4,即使是它造成的,不一定p也是用
5,即使p也适用,雇用他的主任不一定合适
TOPIC: ARGUMENT42 - The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.
"In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign."
To begin with, the speaker cites several evidences to support the assertion that Paraterraof should learn from Bellegea, but close scrutiny reveals that the arguer commit some logical mistakes.
First of all, the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea does not equal with the number of travellers who come to Bellegea for ecotourism. Maybe for them, the airport is just a relay station for--adding fuel for another terminal. Or they come to Bellegea for attending some conferences or some sports games such as the Olmpic Games and the World Cup. Moreover, this is just the number of visitors who travel by air, how about those visitors by ship or train? It is possible that the total number of vistors in Bellegea has decreased since last year.
Secondly, the increase of per capita income does not mean the development of economy, for example, inflation or decrease of populaton can cause such increase as well, or perhaps the trend of invrease has slowed because of the campaign. Even the lcoal economy does have improved since last year , we cannot contribute the success to the campaign without rulling out other possible factors: the development of industry or the boom of agriculture.
In addition, the arguer does not tell us whether this campaign is suitable for Paraterra's real condition. If it has not so many palces of interest as Bellegea, visitors would not come even the campaign takes place. Furthermore, the arguer failes to mention the condition of environment in Bellegea after this campaign of ecotourism. If the natural environment of Bellegea has been destroyed rather than preserved, then Paraterra had better not adopt such method.
Last but not the least, even all the assumptions is convincing, the arguer can not get the conclusion that they should hire the current director of Bellegea as a consultant for the campaign. Firtly, the campaign's success in Bellegea may be the result of cooperation of many officials rather than the director himself or herself. Secondly, even the director played vital role in the campaign, we could not ensure that he or she can succeed in Paraterra as the director is not familiar with Paraterra possibly.
In sum, the argument is not convincing as it stands. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer should provide more evidence to support that the campaign is effective in stimulating economy and give sufficient comparison between the two countries to ensure the campaign is suitable for Bellegea. Additionally, we can not belive the director is the best choice for Bellegea's campaign until the arguer give more evidences. |
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