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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
This editorial bases on an unwarranted survey and follows with a series of illegitimate induction. I would arguer these facets in turns.
Before believes a survey, one would have to know who conducts it at first. If the conductors have an unfair inclination before do the researches, the veracity of this survey would be questionable. Or, perhaps though the conductors don't have any inclination but not skillful or do not have a spirit of dedication, the accuracy of the survey could not be ensured. It even would be homework of several students in the local senior high school who have no experience. What's more, how about the number of the conductors? Since there has no evidence concerning, it is quiet possible that there just two or three people leading to a presumptuous result of the survey.
Secondly, an accurate survey should conduct with control and broad-cross. However, in the cited survey about the trends of video-game players, we could not see any. How does the survey conduct? In paper or just in verbal? And who are the responders? Are they interested in the video game? How about their age? Are they too old or too young to play the video-game? What about the sex ratio of the responders? Are there too many men or women to keep the survey in a balance? Obviously, the arguer mentions none of them. Maybe, these responders are not game fans or interested in all kind of games and that would leading the survey to an unfair result.
In addition, assuming the survey is tested, the interests of responders would not promise a good sale. As cited in the argument, Whirlwind has made a selling strategy targeting on people 10 to 25 years old. How do they know these persons would interest in the games preferred by responders of the survey? From the very vague expression “the age-group most likely to play video games” or from the author’s baseless assumption? This induction is so ridiculous. In a age-group of 10 to 25 years old don’t means interested in playing games; interested in games don’t mean willing to play games with lifelike graphics; having a will to play this games they may don’t want to buy them since they could play it somewhere else, such as a game studio. Let alone these games require “the most up-to-date computers” and most people in the 10-25 years age-group do not have much money.
Overall, the editorial cites a very inaccurate survey to show the trend of the video-game players and the induction in turns is also illogical. For these, who can guarantee the sales of Whirlwind video games would surely increase in the near future.
真的是最近写得太恶心了,自己都不知道自己写了什么是多久写的了,哭哭哭,大哭,有人有空就帮我看看吧,我已经茫然了....
多提一点意见嘛,谢谢了.... |
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