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117.The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
最近一次调查超过70%的回应者报告说他们被要求回家完成的工作量比以前多。由于Valu-Mart在过去并没有发现办公用品部销量的显著上升,我们应该利用这种在家办公的趋势,在所有Valu-Mart商店增加家庭办公机器比如打印机、小型复印机、碎纸机和传真机的存货。我们也将增加办公用品比如纸笔和钉书机的存货。通过这些变革,我们办公用品部将会成为我们商店中盈利最多的部门。
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(1) 调查的有效性:如何进行,若是该部门主持的,会选择有益于他们的回答;样本是否有代表性,能适用于该公司所有市场;
(2) 增加存货未必能提高收益;
(3) 匆忙下结论,没有考虑其他影响因素;
In the memo, the arguer proposes that all Valu-Mart stores should increase their stocks of home machines for there is a coming work-at-home trend in the latest future. He cited a recent survey to support his conclusion. Reasonable as it sounded, we find some logical flaws in the memo after a close analysis.
Firstly, the survey on which the conclusion rested is too vague to be reliable. The argument fails to offer us some necessary information, such as (1) who conduced the survey? If the survey is conducted by the office-supply department itself, it is highly possible that they will filter some echoes which are benefit to their own interests. (2)How many people are involved in the survey? Are they chosen randomly? When the author wants to apply the result of the survey to all VM stores, he should offer compelling evidence to prove that the samples are able to represent for their whole market demand. Unfortunately, we find little sign of this processor. Supposing the respondents are confined in a certain area, where the customers only account for a small proportion of the VM market, the decision will somewhat misleading. Unless the arguer can sweep out all the doubt discussed above, can we justifiablely accept the conclusion.
Secondly, the mere action of increasing the machine stock does not necessarily improve their sales performance. Even though many people will bring work home, it does not mean they will use these machines at home. Common sense tells us, with the development of the technology, many work can be deal with by computers, and we also have been access to huge information by means of internet. Consequently, work at home does not necessarily use office-machines, such as printer, small copy machines. If the machines can’t sale well, the stocks will not only add cost, but also bring unexpected risk in the future.
The arguer committed a fallacy of hasty generalization. He neglected to take into account other factors which have impact on the sales of their products. For instance, his rivals also found out this home-office trend, take some promotion action, such as curbing the small machines price, adding advertising cost. It is highly possible that though there is an obvious increasing in the home-office machines market, the V M can't enhance their profit of the office-supply department.
All in all, after we find out such logical flaws in the argument, the evidence which is used to suppot the claim is unwarranted.Any decision which is addressing to lift up the sales performance need detailed and relible investigation and reasonalbe considertion before in sake of avoiding undeisreable risk.what's more important, the management of VM should figour out the reason that result to the lower saling performance in home-supply deparment.
Total Words: 456
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