Argument73 【黄金十二宫－白羊】第八次作业(6.9)

asong2004UID: 2178054

TOPIC: ARGUMENT73 - The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.

"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."
WORDS: 486         TIME: 130min          DATE: 2006-6-10

Outlines:
1.租车比卖车利润高的前提没有证实。
2.租车的业务量不一定比买车高。
3.作者的论据无法证明租车的人比买车的多。

In this argument, the arguer recommends that their business should be focused on leasing car from selling them. To support this conclusion the arguer cites the result of resent survey that the number of people leasing new cars has exceeded the number of purchasing new cars in the last five years and the average age of cars in Mohilia is six. Moreover the arguer optimistically indicated that the proportion of drivers driving leased will overtake that of owned cars. A careful examination of this argument would reveal how groundless it is.
First of all, the precondition of diverting the focus of business is suspect. As in known to all, the aim of business movement is seeking profit as soon as possible. The hypothesis gain of leasing cars is higher than selling them can be considered as premise of changing the focus of bussiness with doubt.  But, since the arguer provides no evidence to substantiate this assumption it is equally possible that the expense of leasing is under the cost of purchasing new one. For example , we have to  pay for a new ford about 20000$. But  the price of leasing the same one merely 50$ each month .People  would  not obtain expecting income.
Secondly, the argument also rests on the gratuitous assumption the number of transaction leasing car  is more than buying new cars .  We can not rationally conclude the condition of changing focus from arguer's evidence. Even though the majority of drivers will be driving leased when new car leases outnumber purchase, these people possibly have plans of purchasing new cars.
Granted that the plan of changing the bussiness focus on leasing cars  is feasible, evidence provided by arguer is unauthentic. Though trade of leasing cars  expanded in five years, it have been available since ten years . The fact is not a sound evidence to draw a conclusion that quantity of leasing cars will exceed that of buying new cars. Perhaps people leasing cars lease another new  car each year during that five years. Nevertheless it is impossibility to people who purchased a car to buy another one. So the sum of purchasing new cars is more practically.
Or perhaps the increase of proportion of leasing cars is due to a government's relative policy  propping up long-term car leasing. Lacking the support from government , the number of leasing cars will increase improbably.
To sum up, the conclusion reached in the argument lacks credibility since the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer claims ,To make the argument more convincing ,the arguer should provide more information the number of leasing cars and that of buying new cars during last ten years .  To better evaluate the argument ,  we need more concrete evidence that the leasing number will increase and the profit of leasing car is higher than selling. Otherwise the argument is logically unacceptable.