Argument147 【越洋农场战队】作文－蝌蚪欢迎拍砖！

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Argument147:
The following appeared in a editorial in a business magazine.

" Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reserved. The survey asked video game players what feature were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campain directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

1. 这个统计的sample，文章没有告知样本的大小，组成，背景等等。
2. 文章的一个假设，10－25的人喜欢并能够有能力购买电脑游戏，可能青少年在这个时段受到太多管制，而不能更多的接触游戏，或不能购买。
3. 花很多钱在广告上面就一定能促进销售，但是调查中玩家说喜欢这种lifelike的画面，并不代表他们一定会买。

445words 50mins

The author of this editorial predicts that the declination sales trend of video games will be reversed in the next few month based on a survey involves video-game players. To substantiate this prediction, the author employs several evidences as follow: (1) Whirlwind has introduced several games with lifelike graphics to people 10 to 25 years old; (2) they made an extensive advertising; (3) a survey that video-player prefer those games with lifelike graphics. At first glance, it appears to be somehow plausible, but further reflection reveals there are several logic flaws in this argument.

To begin with, the author's prediction is based on an assumption that people 10 to 25 years old like playing video games.(The most egregious reasoning error in the argument is the author’s use of assumption that……) However, the author provide no evidence to support these assumption. It is entirely possible that those people in school age are refrained to access video games by their parents and rules of schools. Without considering and ruling out these cases, the author's prediction is tantamount to poor conclusion.

Second, there are some problems with the survey that the author has not give any information about (the author provides no assurances that the survey on which the argument depends is statistical reliable.) the samples of the survey. We do not any details about those people's gender, address, occupation, age, national identification and so forth, involved in the survey. It is likely that the people surveyed are mostly female or at old age. Lacking more information about the samples, the author can not draw any convincing conclusion from this survey, let alone to make an prediction.

third, the author assumes that putting an exorbitant amount of money in advertisement will necessarily lead to an dramatic increasing of video games. The fact that people prefer lifelike graphics does not mean(hardly suffice to infer/indicate) that people will buy it. Other facts may affect this results. Perhaps the whole economy of the nation was in a depressing condition, and most people can not afford these games. Or maybe the games this company put out has other flaws will lead people not to buy it. If  this is the case, the author's claims all amount to unconvincing prediction.(the author cannot justify this prediction.)

In sum, this prediction is ill-conceived and logically unconvincing. To better support(To better assess and evaluate ) this prediction, the author must provide more information about those people involved in the survey and more compelling evidences that people 10 to 25 years old really like the games the company introduced. Moreover, the fact that people like these games has the ability to afford them also is expected.