Argument130 BHN

bhnUID: 2177959

130The following appeared in the annual report of a chain of stores that sell supplies for do-it-yourself home improvements.

"Current reports indicate that sales of new homes nationwide declined by 9 percent during the past year, while sales of existing homes increased by 16 percent. Thus we can expect that the percentage of homeowners who will be making repairs or improvements to their homes will also increase. In addition, people who buy existing homes will have more money left over after the purchase to spend on home improvements. Finally, people who buy existing homes are more likely to make improvements themselves, as opposed to paying someone else. These factors combined indicate we can expect an increasing demand for products in all our stores nationwide, thus increasing our profits in the coming year."

21:20--22:5

The arguer concludes that there will be an increasing demand for do-it-yourself improvements in the their stores nationwide, thus their profits will increase in the coming year. I find the conclusion is based on a series() of unwarranted assumptions.

First, the arguer unfairly assumes that the number of clients will increase. Admittedly, the sales of new homes nationwide declined by 9 percentage while sales of existing homes increased by 16 percent last according current reports. However,  if that situation will continue  in the future is open to doubt. Even if the trend will go on,  it does not necessarily means that the clients of the stores mentioned in the argument will increase. To make that assumption acceptable, there must be the premise that those increased people buying existing houses will buy the products for home improvements, which, obviously(), do not exist.

Second, the assumption that people who buy existing homes have more money left over after the purchase to spend on the home improvements is dubious. The arguer fails to provide any information concerning why more people choose to buy existing homes. Gernerally, existing houses are relatively cheaper than new houses in the same condition and people could save some money by buying existing houses. But if it is the depressed() economy that cause the declining income of residents and further cause their lack of  money  to buy new houses, perhaps residents only have money to buy an existing house and have no money left to do any home improves. In this situation, the stores could not increase their profits.

Third, The assumption that people buying existing houses are more willing to make improvements themselves is unwarranted. Considering no investigation were conducted on the tendency of people buying existing houses on how to do home improvements , the assumption is premature.

Even assumption all those three assumptions exist(), the conclusion is still unconvincing. The arguer fails to consider other factors that might influence the profits of stores such as: competitors, management, quality of products. What if there are many new comers to this field and competitors are very strong? What if the management of the stores are very poor, and thus the cost are very high? What if the products does not meet the demand of consumers or the quality is not good? Without thinking about these factors, it is hard to draw any persuadable conclusions.

In sum, the arguer draw the conclusion without solid evidence, which is ,of course, not logically acceptable.