Argument48 Ares战队George第二次作业

baihe1988UID: 2203505

Argument-48: the following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.
'Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause and fitness levels will improve when the economy does.'

提纲：逻辑错误：
  第一：二十年前有一半健康状况达标的仅仅是Corpora的市民，但是现在说的是全国范围内有四分之一的公民健康状况达标，所以不能得出现在Corpora的市民的健康状况具体如何；另外随着时间的推移，公民健康状况的标准有可能会变化，所以20年前的标准下的结果和现在标准下的结果也不一定有可比性。
  第二：整体的健康状况在全国最好并且电脑的拥有率最高并不能clear得出电脑不是市民体质下降的原因。因为只有市民使用电脑的时间长短才会对健康状况产生影响，而电脑拥有率的高低不能说明什么问题。
  第三：市民对于提高健康状况的投入花费过低并不一定是因为经济状况下降的缘故，而可能有其他原因——比如锻炼身体的设施不够完善，服务不好等。
  第四：全文没有论据表明只要经济增长了，市民对改善健康状况的投入就会增加。因为市民是否增加投入不一定取决于经济状况，可能是其他的原因。另外也没有证据表明投入增加了就会使得市民的健康状况改善。

全文：
To some degree, the author’s argument is weak. The final conclusion that the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause and fitness levels will improve when the economy does, is unsupported/unwarranted/ungrounded and groundless/baseless/rootless, I’m afraid.

Half of the Corpora’s citizens met the standards for physical fitness 20 years ago. But the one quarter that the board said could meet the standard was referring to the one quarter of the whole nation’s people. That is to say, until now, we cannot acquire any information about today’s physical fitness’s case (or circumstance/situation/condition) of the Corpora’s citizens. What we only know about now is that, 20 years ago, half of the Corpora’s citizens met the standard. From the two tips given above, we could not infer a conclusion, like the author did, that the physical fitness of Corpora’s people has fallen, because there are not enough proof/evidence. Besides this, there is another mistake that the author made. As the time went by, the physical fitness standard might change. The author’s unsupported conclusion has another wrong premise that is, in his opinion, the physical fitness standard was changeless. But there is no proof can verify this. Maybe it is changeless, but it probably changed because the citizen’s physical condition has improved.

The author said:”since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit.” This conclusion might also be wrong. Only the lasting time of using a computer can have a bad effect on the citizens’ physical fitness. And the levels of computer ownership don’t have something to do with the physical fitness condition directly. So, in my opinion, we couldn’t draw any conclusion just from the two ‘highest’. If we want to conclude something, then some other information is needed.

The phenomenon of the low expenditures on fitness-related products and services is unusual. But, to some extent, the reason given by the author is also unreasonable. The author’s reason is a little too absolute. There are many other kinds of possible reasons for the phenomenon. For example, maybe the equipment for exercise is not very well, or the service of the exercise places is unsatisfied maybe, and there also may be some other reasons for it. In a word, the reason that the economy’s recent decline causes the unusual low expenditures, which was given by the author, is not overall and is partial. It is only one possible reason.

At last/Finally, there is also no evidence can prove that the fitness levels will improve when the economy levels does. Whether the physical fitness can improve or not, is influenced by the expenditures spent on the physical fitness. And we have known that the economy may not be the reason that led to the low expenditure of this year. So, we couldn’t deduce as follows: because of the improvement of the economy, the expenditures would rise, and then the physical fitness would improve.


写作时间：2小时20分钟（哭啊！）

自己感想：找到的点不知道对不对，看过的、参考过的东西也不是很权威，就随便找到了这几个点写写了。也不知道怎么回事——怎么现在这么喜欢说废话——三篇都是这个样子~汗！