argument53 不是很有东西写的一篇

paburawUID: 2204657

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
WORDS: 362          TIME: 上午 12:28:08          DATE: 2006-7-18

第一，关于实验的问题，可能25个婴儿数量上不够，另外没有对照，a suitable control group，

第二，作者的measure方法有问题，大部分的婴儿对这些刺激都会有反应并不能说明太大的问题。

第三，作者没有说明那个激素和因而害羞之间确实存在关系，仅仅是说这些婴儿多是秋季怀上的，但是是否这种东西能够though placenta也不知道，而且仅说是对脑功能有影响，那种类多的去了

第四，很多其他的因素会导致害羞，比如环境因素，经历民俗，教育等等。另外作者采用说是孩子自己定位为害羞，也没什么说服力，应该有个questionnaire比较可靠

In this argument, the author concludes that it is increased levels of melatonin before birth which cause shyness in infants, shyness continuing into these infants' later lives. And the author employs a study to bolster his conclusion. Unfortunately, this argument is specious in several respects.

To begin with, in the absence of the procedures of survey, its reliability is open to doubt. There is a good chance that 25 infants is not a statistically enough sample to draw any sound conclusion which can typify all infants. Furthermore, there is not a suitable control group of infants, which subjects’ factors are similar to already group, except that they are not conceived in early autumn. Only has comparison between these two groups, the results of the study may be more statistically reliable.

In the second place, sigh of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli does not necessarily a sigh of shyness. Common sense and experience tells us that most babies are sensitive to what they are unfamiliar; additionally they are curious to everything around them. It is entirely possible what the author regards as mild distress is realistic a sigh of curiosity, because the author do not tell us which kind of way baby react to unfamiliar stimuli fall into category of mild distress. What is more, the author do not use scientific criterion to measure whether a child is shy, rather than let themselves to identify.We will not be convinced by the author, until he provides the criterion used to categorize baby’s reaction.

In the third place, the author fails to establish a causal relationship between high levels of melatonin and high incidence of shyness. Maybe there is not more than correlation between them. Although the correlation sometimes is certain evidence for causal relationship, in itself it is not enough. For example, other hormones rather than melatonin may be more important in determining whether a child have a characteristic of shyness. Furthermore, the argument contains no physic evidence that this kind of hormone can reach baby during pregnancy period.

Final and not least, common sense and experience tells us that many reasons may also contribute to develop one person's characters. Everyone differs in their experiences, upbringing, and education levels, which would all exert effects on one’s characters. Until the arguer consider these and other reasons, along with the impacts of hormone that contribute to cause shyness, he cannot convince us that melatonin is responsible for causing shyness in their latter lives.

In sum, this argument is not well-reasoned as it maintains. To better substantiate his conclusion, the author must provide more and clearer evidence which might include the following: procedures of study that prove it statistically reliable, mild distress of infant reacting to unfamiliar stimuli typifying a sigh of shyness, clear causal relationship of the incidence of shyness and high levels of  melatonin.