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TOPIC: ARGUMENT117 - The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
WORDS: 474 TIME: 0:30:00 DATE: 2006-7-27
In this argument, the manager of Valu-Mart (VM) stores suggest that the VM should store the office supplies and then make more profit. To support his conclusion, the manager cited results of a recent study; in addition, he brought the trend of work-at-home as an evidence and listed some ways by which he believed could result more profit. At first glance, this text may be reasonable, but with careful analysis, we could find it suffered from sever logical flaws and discussed as follows.
First and foremost, the manager cited recent survey for evidence. But in my view, this one is suffered from several aspects. First, the manager mention no words about the real number of the respondents and just offered the proportion , but as we all know, if a survey’s not offer both of the proportion and the number of respondents, it's result will be a poor one, because it is very possible that the number of respondents is very litter so 70 percent also became useless. And we do not know the respondents are selected randomly, may be the respondents are just from a same company or same realm so the result can not stand for a trend.
Secondly, we just know the respondents "require" to take more work home, but what we do not know is that whether they take work home or just be their a dream? It is common to have the wish to work at home because it would not make people too tired and could save time and money spend on the way travel to workplace. So the manager should offer us how many respondents really put their work home and make us believe it not their subjective imagine.
Thirdly, we do not know what the proportion of work that they bring home, we just know it more than before, but from logical aspects, before we make the decision we should handle more information about the quantity of work taken home.
Another significant flaw is that the manager believed his ways just as store office supplies could lead profit. If the svrvey can stand for the trend, in my views, these way may be useless at all or could lead some diverse results. First, it is hard to think that a person will brought a copy machines or fax machines such expensive ones just because he/she want work at home, he/she could make the copy and fax work outside just pay a little. Also it is no evidence to show that the need of office supplies will increase. So these way can not make sure to be profitable.
All in all, the manager fail to suggest his conclusion just based on such dubious evidences. If the manager could bring more information about the survey and do a thorough analysis, it would make this argument more logical acceptable. |
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