argument45 fly aw 同主题写作第六期题目！

exp03UID：2158827

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 431          TIME: 0:40:00          DATE: 2006-7-28

The arguer who presents the conclusions seems to have assumed that, the arctic deer's number decreased in the past year and this phenomenon caused by deer’s ability cannot follow the change of the migration patterns, without well reasoning. I would suspend my judgment about the credibility of the recommendation until the cogent evidences can be given from several other angles.

First of all, just because catching less deer dose not preclude the fact that more deer are not seen by hunters. The hunters who give the reports of nature may not have the proper scientific instruments or educational training necessary to detect the total number of a kind of wild animal. Habit changing sometimes occurs in the nature because animals have the ability of adapting surrounding situations. If old habitats was not suitable and save enough to the deer to live, why can humanity insist that they do not choose new migration ways and times? Choosing some new habitat where maintain old weather conditions and provide more plants and food is a better way for wild deer escaping from extinction, thus why they can live thousands of years on the earth.

Besides, we still do not get only evidence about the changing weather condition in the region where arctic deer live in. How do we assume that recent global warming trends have significantly influenced the nature in these areas before experimental statistics are given out? To persuade us, the arguer need to give data about when did the winter begin and over in the past year, how many snow have fallen down, and daily temperatures in the winter. But only one year's data is also insufficient to give out actually result. By comparing the data of last year to past years in the history, we may find out some trend of weather changing.

Even if the arctic deer’s number really significantly reduces, the arguer still cannot assert that it is caused by weather changing. To satisfy the request of deer products, the number of deer may decrease significantly by hunting. With waste water in the lakes and rivers, the deer can not maintain their health as before. With more areas used to construction human houses and factories, wild animals now have nowhere to go to search food. Before we preclude other influent reasons such as over hunting, environment pollution, and lacking food, how can we believe the warmer weather can deduce the death of a group of animals?

As it stands, this argument is not logically acceptable. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to well interpret these questionable facets.

写得太多了！

exp03UID：2158827

顶起来