Argument45 『同主题写作第六期』By Alfred

alfred0516UID: 2214165

第四篇练习，居然还是超时了。。。汗。。。。

※   Fails to establish the causal relationship between the decrease of Arctic deer and the recent global warming trends.
※   调查没有客观性；仅仅根据猎人的报告。很可能因为害怕被猎杀北极鹿都躲了起来，因而猎人得出错误的结论。
※   没有足够的证据表明一定就是无法按原有迁移习惯穿越结冰海面而导致的数量下降。还要排除其他可能的导致原因。比如大量的猎杀
※   The arguer没有证明GLOBAL WARMING改变了它们的迁移习惯后，它们的数量就一定会下降。完全有可能因为气温上升，他们不用迁移也能找到足够的食物。

WORDS: 464          TIME: 上午 0:35:00          DATE: 2006-7-28

The arguer asserted that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of the deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To justify the conclusion, the arguer point out that arctic deer search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year, and that local hunters report that the deer populations are declining, and the fact that the local hunters reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt. However, close scrutiny of the argument reveals various logical problems, which render it unconvincing.

First of all, the arguer fails to establish the causal relationship between the decrease of arctic deer and the recent global warming trends. The two things just happen simultaneously, and therefore the arguer does not give any substantial proof that they are related.

What's more, the survey must be shown to be reliable before I can accept any conclusion based upon it. Specifically, the survey must be of objectivity and with credibility. However, the survey is done based only on the report of local hunters. Yet, it is quite possible that the numbers of arctic deer they can capture have decreased temporarily, so they hastily reported to the surveyor that the whole populations decrease. And it is entirely possible that most of the arctic deer, for fear of being captured by local hunters, escape to where there are fewer hunters. Therefore, without any evidence of the survey's reliability and objectivity, it is impossible to draw any firm conclusion that the deer populations are decreasing.

The arguer fails to rule out other possible factors that may also cause the decrease of deer populations. The arguer mentions "local hunters", so it is entirely possible that a large quantity of hunting activity is the major cause of the decrease other than the global warming, if any. Therefore, without ruling out this reason, it is unconvincing for the arguer to draw the conclusion that it is the global warming that has caused the arctic deer populations decrease.

In addition, even if the global warming has changed the old-age migration pattern across the frozen sea, no evidence is shown that in this case, the deer populations would inevitably decrease. It is quite possible that the global warming lead to the increase of temperature, and thus it is fully possible for arctic deer to get sufficient food without moving from island to island.

In conclusion, the argument is logically unsound as it stands. To strengthen it, the arguer must show some evidence that global warming is the sole reason leading to the decrease of arctic deer populations. And to better evaluate to argument, the arguer should give us more information that the deer population is indeed decreasing.

geniegoUID: 201395

The arguer asserted that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of the deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To justify the conclusion, the arguer point out that arctic deer search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year, and that local hunters report that the deer populations are declining, and the fact that the local hunters reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt.[陈述的很多，可以从简] However, close scrutiny of the argument reveals various logical problems, which render it unconvincing.[比较简介，但是是套话，可以考虑用这个句子带上原文的内容，前面的陈述也因此可以省掉]

First of all, the arguer fails to establish the causal relationship between the decrease of arctic deer and the recent global warming trends. The two things just happen simultaneously, and therefore the arguer does not give any substantial proof that they are related.[可以继续扩展，他因的引入来解释着点，而且既然说道着点就应该指出他所提供的冰雪融化这点不足以支撑论点]

What's more, the survey must be shown to be reliable before I [换成we更专业]can accept any conclusion based upon it. Specifically, the survey must be of objectivity and with credibility[空泛，应该再具体，避免套话]. However, the survey is done based only on the report of local hunters. Yet, it is quite possible that the numbers of arctic deer they can capture have decreased temporarily, so they hastily reported to the surveyor that the whole populations decrease.[so后面的半句放在下一句的后面读得比较通顺] And it is entirely possible that most of the arctic deer, for fear of being captured by local hunters, escape to where there are fewer hunters. Therefore, without any evidence of the survey's reliability and objectivity,it is impossible to draw any firm conclusion that the deer populations are decreasing.
[我认为，应该先质疑survey,否则第二段已经承认鹿群减少，并产生了对global warming与减少鹿群关系的质疑，那么你下一段又反过来质疑之前已经肯定的东西]
The arguer fails to rule out other possible factors that may also cause the decrease of deer populations. The arguer mentions "local hunters", so it is entirely possible that a large quantity of hunting activity is the major cause of the decrease other than the global warming, if any. Therefore, without ruling out this reason, it is unconvincing for the arguer to draw the conclusion that it is the global warming that has caused the arctic deer populations decrease.[这点分析的很好]

In addition, even if the global warming has changed the old-age migration pattern across the frozen sea, no evidence is shown that in this case, the deer populations would inevitably decrease. It is quite possible that the global warming lead to the increase of temperature, and thus it is fully possible for arctic deer to get sufficient food without moving from island to island.[你的第二段也是在说这点，应该拿下来和这段合并]

In conclusion, the argument is logically unsound as it stands. To strengthen it, the arguer must show some evidence that global warming is the sole reason leading to the decrease of arctic deer populations. And to better evaluate to [删掉]argument, the arguer should give us more information that the deer population is indeed decreasing.[总结同样存在逻辑颠倒的问题，应该先是decreasing的可信性，才是decreasing的原因分析的正确性]
[你擅长总结，从段落总结，到全文总结，都写的很好。但有一点，就是看了你的两篇文章你都是涉及到4个驳斥点，每点分析的都不长，而且你的总结和TS写的都很长，基本上都是比分析还略长一点。如果你想写多点分析点，显的文章更饱满，你可以让总结和TS从简，并加大分析的内容，因为感觉你的分析不容易深入，缺少细节]

[另外，就是逻辑顺序上存在一点问题，从A48到这篇你都有这方面问题，但是不同方面，那篇是主次安排，这篇是自相矛盾]

[你的问题都是稍加思考一下就可以解决的，建议写之前要多几分钟思考]

[ 本帖最后由 geniego 于 2006-8-1 10:54 编辑 ]