ARGUMENT 71 0610G-PRACTISE小组作业 有链必回！ 真诚中～

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题目：ARGUMENT 71 - Copper occurs in nature mixed with other minerals and valuable metals in ore, and the proportion of copper in the ore can vary considerably. Until fairly recently, the only way to extract pure copper from ore was by using a process that requires large amounts of electric energy, especially if the proportion of copper in the ore is low. New copper-extracting technologies can use up to 40 percent less electricity than the older method to process the same amount of raw ore, especially when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Therefore, we can expect the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to decline significantly.
字数：259          用时：上午 0:30:00          日期：2006-8-3

This argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. In this argument, the arguer claims that the electricity will be sharply decline significantly due to the new copper-extraction technologies. To support the claim, the arguer pinots out that 40 percent electricity will be reduced compared with the old method In addition, the arguer reasons that is more effective when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Close scrutiny reveals, however, that these evidences provide that credible support for the arguer's assertion.

To begin with, a threshold problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the survey. Without knowing whether the sample studied was representative of the overall group of the whole national copper.  It is impossible to confidently apply the studies' results to that sample. Lacking information about randomness the sample, even we know it is in the same amounts of raw ore, however, we do not know if the raw ore belong with the some place, and the arguer provided no evidence to this and of course make no convincing to me.

Moreover, the arguer fail to establish the causal relationship between the low proportion and the high one which are contain the copper. Hence, we can hardly evaluate that it might be save a large amount of electricity when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. In short, without evidence that show the fact, the arguer's claim is dubious at best.


To sum up, rather than relying solely on the questionable that the electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to decline significantly, it is better to make more and further investigation before coming to an overoptimistic conclusion.

[ 本帖最后由 biess330 于 2006-8-14 12:00 编辑 ]