argument218 Smile-A组第十次作业 欢迎来拍！

EmmanuelleUID: 2231740

TOPIC: ARGUMENT218 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Hyper-Go Toy Company.

"Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though the toy had been a top seller for three years. Our customer surveys show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children. Therefore, to maintain profits we should discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys and report sales increases last year of 200 percent. And since the average family income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase."
WORDS: 477          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-8-11

The speaker concludes that sales of new Hyper-Go toys should increase after they focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. To justify this conclusion, the speaker cites a survey among parents reflecting their concerning on better education. Also, the author mentions the increasing in sales of other companies' educational toys. Careful scrutiny on these facts, however reveals several flaws rendering the conclusion unpersuasive.

The threshold problem is the speaker relies on a causality between the decline in Fierce Fighter toy airplane and parents' worry on youthful violence which has no direct evidence to prove. For the moment that the survey result is reliable, parents' attitude towards youthful violence may not be the reason causing the decline. Parents only said they were more worried on youthful violence not on Fierce Fighter precisely. It's possible that although the name of toy sounds relevant to violence, actually it does not emphasize the violence very much. Moreover, there may be some other reasons leading the decline of Fierce Fighter toy airplane for example, their poor management, the tedious advertisement and the toy itself which can not satisfy children's need. Or perhaps there are so many toys similarly the market is nearly saturated. Without considering other possibilities and lack of direct evidence, the causality is dubious.

Secondly, even assuming the causality is correct other company's experiences may not be caused by their educational toys either. No obvious facts show that people purchase more educational toys than ever which makes the sales of other toy companies have an increase in sales. As a result, the reason for the rising in sales may be various. The author has not pointed out that other companies have not produce new commodity beside the educational toys. It's possible the increase is due to other commodities and perhaps educational toys are not so popular. Lack of direct evidence and without accounting other reasons for increasing, the conclusion that educational toys bring more income to companies can not be taken seriously.

Finally, the speaker acquires the conclusion that sales of Hyper-Go toys should increase basing on two assumptions which are both unsubstantiated. The author assumes that average family income growing will make the family buy more toys, however no survey or poll supports this. Families probably spend money on other more important investment like education, living conditions etc. So although their income increases, their consuming on toys may not change. Another assumption is once sales of toys increase, the sales of Hyper-Go toys will surely increase which is fallacious.  Parents are not necessarily buy Hyper-Go toys unless it has some unique advantages however no such evidence has been found in the passage. If other companies’ toys are much more attractive, sales of Hyper-Go toys may not increase. And that if the causality in the second point above is correct this possibility is enhanced. Without enough evidence to show customs will tend to buy Hyper-Go toys, the speaker cannot draw such a conclusion.

In sum, the argument is indefensible as it stands. To bolster it, the author should first find the real reason for the decline. Also other factors of selling should be considered.
(改后523字)

monica98UID: 2124796

没时间写了，先拍拍你的^_^

TOPIC: ARGUMENT218 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Hyper-Go Toy Company.

"Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though the toy had been a top seller for three years. Our customer surveys show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children. Therefore, to maintain profits we should discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys and report sales increases last year of 200 percent. And since the average family income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase."
WORDS: 477          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-8-11

The speaker concludes that sales of new Hyper-Go toys should increase after they focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. To justify this conclusion, the speaker cites a survey among parents reflecting their concerning on better education. Also, the author mentions the increasing in sales of other companies' educational toys. Careful scrutiny on these facts, however reveals several flaws rendering the conclusion unpersuasive.

The threshold problem is the speaker relies on a causality between the decline in Fierce Fighter toy airplane and parents' worry on youthful violence which has no direct evidence to prove. For the moment that the survey result is reliable, parents' attitude towards youthful violence may not be the reason causing the decline. Parents only said they were more worried on youthful violence not on Fierce Fighter precisely. It's possible that although the name of toy sounds relevant to violence, actually it does not emphasize the violence very much. Moreover, there may be some other reasons leading the decline of Fierce Fighter toy airplane for example, their poor management, the tedious advertisement and the toy itself which can not satisfy children's need. Or perhaps there are so many toys similarly the market is nearly saturated. Without considering other possibilities and lack of direct evidence, the causality is dubious.

Secondly, even assuming the causality is correct other company's experiences may not be caused by their educational toys either. No obvious facts show that people purchase more educational toys than ever which makes the sales of other toy companies have an increase in sales. As a result, the reason for the rising in sales may be various. The author has not pointed out that other companies have not produce new commodity beside the educational toys. It's possible the increase is due to other commodities and perhaps educational toys are not so popular . Lack of direct evidence and without accounting other reasons for increasing, the conclusion that educational toys bring more income to companies can not be taken seriously.

Finally, the speaker acquires the conclusion that sales of Hyper-Go toys should increase basing on two assumptions which are both unsubstantiated. The author assumes that average family income growing will make the family buy more toys, however no survey or poll （evidence 就好了）supports this. Families probably spend money on other more important investment like education, (especially considering the fact that they are more concerned about better education.) living conditions etc. So although their income increases, their consuming on toys may not change. Another assumption is once sales of toys increase, the sales of Hyper-Go toys will surely increase which is fallacious.  Parents are not necessarily buy Hyper-Go toys unless it has some unique advantages however no such evidence has been found in the passage. If other companies’ toys are much more attractive, sales of Hyper-Go toys may not increase. And that if the causality in the second point above is correct this possibility is enhanced（还是不要攻击自己得弱点为好）. Without enough evidence to show customs will tend to buy Hyper-Go toys, the speaker cannot draw such a conclusion.

In sum, the argument is indefensible as it stands. To bolster it, the author should first find the real reason for the decline. Also other factors of selling should be considered.

思路很严谨，有的语言逻辑不是很清晰，句子太长了以后容易出现这种问题。注意标点！！！

EmmanuelleUID: 2231740

看来我还是不太能写长句子啊。新东方老师说一般两个长句中间加一到两个短句，节奏比较好。再练练

xinxinwUID: 2144273

The speaker concludes that sales of new Hyper-Go toys should increase after they focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. To justify this conclusion, the speaker cites a survey among parents reflecting their concerning on better education. Also, the author mentions the increasing in sales of other companies' educational toys. Careful scrutiny on these facts, however reveals several flaws rendering the conclusion unpersuasive.

The threshold problem is the speaker relies on a causality between the decline in Fierce Fighter toy airplane and parents' worry on youthful violence which has no direct evidence to prove这个which只带的对象是causality,所以后面的这个从句是不对的. For the moment that the survey result is reliable, parents' attitude towards youthful violence may not be the reason causing the decline. Parents only said they were more worried on youthful violence not on Fierce Fighter precisely. It's possible that although the name of toy sounds relevant to violence, actually it does not emphasize the violence very much偏了，这样说的话就变成另外一个问题：这个玩具本身的设计问题。而不是作者想要论证的销量下降的原因. Moreover, there may be some other reasons leading the decline of Fierce Fighter toy airplane for example, their poor management, the tedious advertisement and the toy itself which can not satisfy children's need. Or perhaps there are so many toys similarly the market is nearly saturated. Without considering other possibilities and lack of direct evidence, the causality is dubious.

Secondly, even assuming the causality is correct other company's experiences may not be caused by their educational toys either. No obvious facts show that people purchase more educational toys than ever which makes the sales of other toy companies have an increase in sales. As a result, the reason for the rising in sales may be various. The author has not pointed out that other companies have not produce new commodity beside the educational toys. It's possible the increase is due to other commodities and perhaps educational toys are not so popular. Lack of direct evidence and without accounting other reasons for increasing, the conclusion that educational toys bring more income to companies can not be taken seriously.

Finally, the speaker acquires the conclusion that sales of Hyper-Go toys should increase basing on two assumptions which are both unsubstantiated. The author assumes that average family income growing will make the family buy more toys, however no survey or poll supports this. Families probably spend money on other more important investment like education, living conditions etc. So although their income increases, their consuming on toys may not change. Another assumption is once sales of toys increase, the sales of Hyper-Go toys will surely increase which is fallacious.  Parents are not necessarily buy Hyper-Go toys unless it has some unique advantages however no such evidence has been found in the passage. If other companies’ toys are much more attractive, sales of Hyper-Go toys may not increase. And that if the causality in the second point above is correct this possibility is enhanced. Without enough evidence to show customs will tend to buy Hyper-Go toys, the speaker cannot draw such a conclusion.

In sum, the argument is indefensible as it stands. To bolster it, the author should first find the real reason for the decline. Also other factors of selling should be considered.