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修改后的,期待评判
TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
WORDS: 463 TIME: 0:45:50 DATE: 2006-8-14
大致提纲:
1. 调查结果没有有效指出吃鱼和感冒有必然的关联
2. 让一步说,即使有关联,鱼油不等于鱼的药效
3. 指出去诊所的次数不能真实反映感冒的情况
4. 指出缺席并不都是由于感冒造成的,作者需要进一步给出调查来证明这一点
In this memo, the author recommends daily use of Ichthaid which is a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent cold and lower absenteeism by giving the evidence of study of nearby East Meria where people eats lots of fish and only visit doctor once or twice per year for the treatment of cold. However, the memo suffers from a series of poor assumptions and cause-effect fallacies, which render it wholly unpersuasive as it stands.
To begin with, the memo is greatly weakened by establishing an inconvincible cause-effect relationship between cold and fish. The study made in East Meria only finds a possible relationship between cold and fish and did not prove this hypothesis at all. There might be some other reasons that make people living in East Meria healthier with cold, such as environmental factor or climate reasons. So, without and further study or doing some control experiment, I can not simply accept the author's assumption between cold and fish.
To say the least, even if there is a relationship between fish and cold, yet the author cannot confuse the effect of fish with nutritional supplement derived from fish oil. As we all know, many parts of fish can be used for medical (e.g. roe, meat, oil, etc.), so the author can not subjectively equal the effect of fish to the fish oil--let alone about that the derived nutritional Ichthaid can include all the useful component of fish oil.
Moreover, the author didn't tell us whether all the people who get cold will see their doctor in East Meria. It is possible that there is a certain tradition in East Meria that people tries to cure themselves if the illness is not serious. Only by doing a comprehensive survey, can the author persuade me into believing people living in East Meria rarely get cold.
Admittedly, cold is one reason for people's absenteeism in schools and workplaces, but is this the most important factor that causes absenteeism? The argument is generally based on an assumption that cold causes absenteeism in schools and workplaces but the author failed to show us any evidence that can prove most absenteeism is caused by cold. Perhaps, people living in West Meria used to ask for leave when they have some personal affairs to deal with while when they suffered from cold, they would like to stick to their schooling or their job.
In sum, the memo is not well supported. To strengthen the argument, the author must provide clear evidence between cold and fish. The also must also provide evidence that Ichithaid can be effective to prevent people from getting cold. Finally, to better evaluate the argument, I would need to know the reasons that cause people's absenteeism in West Meria. |
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