argument235 [Shining Sep] 第五次作业

flycc28UID: 2164453

TOPIC: ARGUMENT235 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.

"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."
WORDS: 419         TIME: 0:45:00          DATE: 2006-8-21

In this argument, the general manager recommends that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. To substantiate the argument, the manager relies in part on increasing listeners, in part on decreased sale of recorded music and in part on a successful station in neighboring cities. It may seem reasonable on the surface, however, a careful examination of this argument will reveal how groundless it is.

First of all, the mere fact that the number of old people in the listening area has increased dramatically while the total number of listeners has declined hardly to suffice the manager's recommendation. The declining of total listeners is not essential to declining of rock-and-roll listeners. Chances are that, the numbers of listeners who are interested in rock-and-roll are unchanged. The indication that old people do not like rock-and-roll is lacking of supports. In case that some old people are naturally rock-and-roll fanatics, the total listeners of rock-and-roll may even go up which contradict with the manager's conjecture.

Moreover, the manager assumes that rock-and-roll lovers are becoming less and less because of the decreased sales of recorded music. But the manager provides no evidence to make it persuasive. On one hand, some other alternative explanations may result in the decreased sales of recorded music, for instance, people's income have declined, or perhaps people prefer listening online which is more convenient to enjoying the recorded music. One the other hand, the most radio listener who enjoy rock-and-roll music seldom buy recorded music, either of the scenarios, if true, will undermine the manager's assumption.

Last but no least, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been successful is not equal to radio station's failure. It is entirely possible that the new station broadcast rock and roll music sometimes, which shows the music's popularity.  Similarly the increasing attention on politics according to the survey is insufficient to show that people emphasize on politics all the time. Maybe t these people who are interested in politics will turn to rock-and-roll music as the election ends. Thus, in absence of the specific correlation between radio station and news station, the manager cannot convince me that rock-and-roll music will meet a decreasing.

In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands, to strengthen the argument the manager should provide better evidence that the numbers of rock-and-roll lovers are declining. To better evaluate the argument, we need to know the real causes of decline of recorded music, along with the increasing news station.

fingerliUID: 2130195

TOPIC: ARGUMENT235 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.

"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."
WORDS: 419         TIME: 0:45:00          DATE: 2006-8-21

In this argument, the general manager recommends that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. To substantiate the argument, the manager relies in part on increasing listeners, in part on decreased sale of recorded music and in part on a successful station in neighboring cities. It may seem reasonable on the surface, however, a careful examination of this argument will reveal how groundless it is.
5行啊！要多少时间，写完带审题7－8min都过去了把，不过我也这个病
First of all, the mere fact that the number of old people in the listening area has increased dramatically while the total number of listeners has declined hardly to suffice the manager's recommendation. The declining of total listeners is not essential to declining of rock-and-roll listeners. Chances are that, the numbers of listeners who are interested in rock-and-roll are unchanged. The indication that old people do not like rock-and-roll is lacking of supports. In case that some old people are naturally rock-and-roll fanatics, the total listeners of rock-and-roll may even go up which contradict with the manager's conjecture.
看得出你主抓arg
Moreover, the manager assumes that rock-and-roll lovers are becoming less and less because of the decreased sales of recorded music. But the manager provides no evidence to make it persuasive. On one hand, some other alternative explanations may result in the decreased sales of recorded music, for instance, people's income have declined, or perhaps people prefer listening online which is more convenient to enjoying the recorded music. One the other hand, the most radio listener who enjoy rock-and-roll music seldom buy recorded music, either of the scenarios, if true, will undermine the manager's assumption.

Last but no least, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been successful is not equal to radio station's failure. It is entirely possible that the new station broadcast rock and roll music sometimes, which shows the music's popularity.  Similarly the increasing attention on politics according to the survey is insufficient to show that people emphasize on politics all the time. Maybe t these people who are interested in politics will turn to rock-and-roll music as the election ends. Thus, in absence of the specific correlation between radio station and news station, the manager cannot convince me that rock-and-roll music will meet a decreasing.

In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands, to strengthen the argument the manager should provide better evidence that the numbers of rock-and-roll lovers are declining. To better evaluate the argument, we need to know the real causes of decline of recorded music, along with the increasing news station.

真的很不错了，尤其是perhaps，分析的很透，其实感觉arg大家都没什大的问题，主要是观点の组织，分析的是否透彻（这个只要时间够大家都可以满足），别的让大家在补充把

[ 本帖最后由 fingerli 于 2006-8-21 21:27 编辑 ]

flycc28UID: 2164453

完蛋了 先表拍...
发现把题目看错了.....................

xuxinyunUID: 2198143

In this argument, the general manager recommends that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. To substantiate the argument, the manager relies in part on increasing listeners, in part on decreased sale of recorded music and in part on a successful station in neighboring cities. It may seem reasonable on the surface, however, a careful examination of this argument will reveal how groundless it is.(一直有点不清楚，引用原文的话是用一般现在时还是过去呢？）

First of all, the mere fact that the number of old people in the listening area has increased dramatically while the total number of listeners has declined hardly to（研究了半天，似乎不该有to） suffice the manager's recommendation. The declining of total listeners is not essential to declining of rock-and-roll listeners. Chances are that, the numbers of listeners who are interested in rock-and-roll are unchanged. The indication that old people do not like rock-and-roll is lacking of supports. In case that some old people are naturally rock-and-roll fanatics, the total listeners of rock-and-roll may even go up which contradict with the manager's conjecture.

Moreover, the manager assumes that rock-and-roll lovers are becoming less and less because of the decreased sales of recorded music. But the manager provides no evidence to make it persuasive. On one hand, some other alternative explanations may result in the decreased sales of recorded music, for instance, people's income have declined, or perhaps people prefer listening online which is more convenient to enjoying the recorded music. One the other hand, the most radio listener who enjoy rock-and-roll music seldom buy recorded music, either of the scenarios, if true, will undermine the manager's assumption.

Last but no least, （用that引导下吧，一个主语从句是吗？）continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been successful is not equal to radio station's failure. It is entirely possible that the new station broadcast(s)  rock and roll music sometimes, which shows the music's popularity.  Similarly the increasing attention on politics according to the survey is insufficient to show that people emphasize on politics all the time. Maybe t these people who are interested in politics will turn to rock-and-roll music as the election ends. Thus, in absence of the specific correlation between radio station and news station, the manager cannot convince me that rock-and-roll music will meet a decreasing.

In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands, to strengthen the argument the manager should provide better evidence that the numbers of rock-and-roll lovers are declining. To better evaluate the argument, we need to know the real causes of decline of recorded music, along with the increasing news station.
写得蛮好的，论证的很清楚，思路也很清晰~~~

jinzhemingUID: 2224073

补充两句： 呵呵

In this argument, the general manager recommends that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. To substantiate the argument, the manager relies in part on increasing listeners, in part on decreased sale of recorded music and in part on a successful station in neighboring cities. It may seem reasonable on the surface, however, a careful examination of this argument will reveal how groundless it is.
/in part…排比很有特色/
First of all, the mere fact that the number of old people in the listening area has increased dramatically while the total number of listeners has declined hardly to suffice/hardly suffices/ the manager's recommendation. The declining of total listeners is not essential to declining of rock-and-roll listeners. Chances are that, the numbers of listeners who are interested in rock-and-roll are unchanged. The indication that old people do not like rock-and-roll is lacking of supports. In case that some old people are naturally rock-and-roll fanatics, the total listeners of rock-and-roll may even go up which contradict with the manager's conjecture.

Moreover, the manager assumes that rock-and-roll lovers are becoming less and less because of the decreased sales of recorded music. But the manager provides no evidence to make it persuasive. On one hand, some other alternative explanations may result in the decreased sales of recorded music, for instance, people's income have declined, or perhaps people prefer listening online which is more convenient to enjoying the recorded music. One the other hand, the most radio listener who enjoy rock-and-roll music /probably/ seldom buy recorded music, either of the scenarios, if true, will undermine the manager's assumption.

Last but no least, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been successful is not equal to radio station's failure. It is entirely possible that the new station broadcast rock and roll music sometimes, which shows the music's popularity.  Similarly the increasing attention on politics according to the survey is insufficient to show that people emphasize on politics all the time. Maybe t these people who are interested in politics will turn to rock-and-roll music as the election ends./我觉得不是很有说服力/ Thus, in absence of the specific correlation between radio station and news station, the manager cannot convince me that rock-and-roll music will meet a decreasing.

In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands, to strengthen the argument the manager should provide better evidence that the numbers of rock-and-roll lovers are declining. To better evaluate the argument, we need to know the real causes of decline of recorded music, along with the increasing news station.

jinzhemingUID: 2224073

请组长有空的话，也帮我拍一下：）

In the argument, the arguer concludes that the KNOW station should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. To support his conclusion, the arguer points out the examples such as the dramatic population change and sales decrease of recorded music and the survey that people are more interested in news before the election. Close scrutiny of the argument, however, reveals several flaws, which render the conclusion less convincing.

Firstly, the dramatic change of population is intended to support the conclusion. But it is too vague and oversimplified. No evidence is provided to prove that these older people do not like rock-and-roll. Although such music is loud and exciting, it is possible that these people, on the contrary, are enthusiastic about rock-and-roll because they liked listening to it when they were young. As to the decline of the total number of KNOW's listeners, the argument provides no information about the extent of the decline which may be negligible. The decline of the total number of listeners was probably due to other possible factors, such as travelling and business trips. Lacking adequate evidence about the change of population and listeners, the arguer's conclusion is unconvincing.

Secondly, the arguer unfairly assumes that sales of recorded music apply specifically to the sales of rock-and-roll. Lacking evidence about the sales of different kinds of music, it is possible that sales of recorded music other than rock-and-roll decreased while the sales of rock-and-roll remained healthy. It is also possible that there was an increase in sales of rock-and-roll because it could lift up people's spirits and enthusiasm for the election given the fact that many older people, who were critical for the vote, like rock-and-roll. Either of the scenarios, if true, will undermine the arguer’s assumption.

Thirdly, the survey before the recent election, while suggestive of people's interests in politics, is biased. It is entirely possible that the important election is held every four years, which attracted much attention like the Olympics for a short period of time. It is also possible that the scandals during the recent election caused disgust and indignation among the voters and they decided to show little interests in politics.

Finally, the arguer assumes that rock-and-roll and a continuous news format are mutually exclusive alternatives. It is equally possible that the radio station airs two programs at different period of time to meet the needs of people who like both rock-and-roll and news on politics.

In sum, the argument is not well reasoned as it stands. To strengthen the conclusion, the arguer should provide more information on people's taste of music, sales of rock-and-roll. The arguer should also conduct an objective survey to make the conclusion convincing.

flycc28UID: 2164453

.(一直有点不清楚，引用原文的话是用一般现在时还是过去呢？）

~~~原文原时态,正文用现在~~~