Argument15 四海一家 第四次作业

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Argument15
15The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."





Providing us with a cited survey and groundless assumption that this company will suffer a losing in the market in the future, not only in sales but also in profit. The arguer recommends people who are the Old Dairy stockholders should abandon their shares while other new investors who consider this company as their investing objective should not stock in. Based on all unconvincing assumption and survey, this recommendation may not convince an investor not invest a company.


At the first place, there is a suspicion we should hold to the survey- both in its generalization, the people who conduct it and the reliability of the research. If the people who write this recommendation is someone who belongs to the competitive company, or even someone who advocate to the light food rather than the heavy food involved in a certain society as so-called healthy community. In addition, referred to the respondent, if there are too few people who involve in this research, then the results will lose generalization, eventually losing guarantee.


Secondly, even though we admit that there are some credibility in this survey, but a desire which people showed not to engages in a high fat food could not lead to the confirmation that when facing with the delicious while high in fat and cholesterol food, they will all hold the principle not to attach one of them. Normally, people who like cigarettes know the bad effect of them, but can not abandon it after all.


Thirdly, the argument fail to convince us ,there is surely a declination in sail in the Old Dairy stockholders. As in human sense, sail of a company , not only depended on a small scare of its product, people always show more attention on if the price of the goods is cheap enough , if the service of the company can fit to one's desire. As an old company, Old Dairy may provide more free service, such as a free bus sending the customs to home after the housewife finish their shopping at the supermarket. In addition, other alternatives may more enticement to a custom, such as the reputation of a company, comprehensive deeds it could provide.

Fourthly, compared to the sales, no evidence showing the profit of the company will diminish, a comparison between other companies who said to be showing more healthy foods could not lead to further support, since though the Old Daily sells many product in high fat but it also sells something in low fat. A selective comparison between the advantage of the others while the drawback of the Old Daily could guarantee nothing. Even though the Old Daily really sell most of products in high fat, if the cost price of it is lower than other company, if people shows more credibility on its products, the profit of it may not decline as the arguer assumed.  

Moreover, to hastily abandon the stock in the company is not a easy choice to some people ,while may not a clever choice for another groups. There is an assumption that the people who already hold the stock can easily abandon it, which, of course, not true. If the people who hold the stocks are the employee of the company, they cannot easily put their money back. In addition, to other who want to stock for the company, even though the product high in fat really impede the sales. The company may product other kinds of production that may bring about more profit.

In sum, before a hasty recommendation, a comprehensive survey should be made and a research on market should be conducted as well.