argument65 【0706G－LOVEAW小组大贴】第十一次作业

welcomebsUID: 2235250

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

The president of a chain of cheese stores suggest the company to concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses and decrease their varieties of imported cheese in that the president assumes that domestic cheeses are mostly prevailing the cheese market and to reduce the expenses of inventory for imported cheese will bring about the increased profits. But through close scrutiny of the evidence reveals several logical flaws which I will point out below.

To begin with, the president unfairly assumes that the sell of domestic cheeses are in a favorable state just from the evidences of “the five best-selling cheeses”. From the information the author provides us, the five best-selling cheeses are from Wisconsin which can probably not present the whole domestic cheeses. It is the same as the judgment of a quality of a whole class – no any class can be considered as the best one if only one student in it is the most excellent student in the school while others parallel or stand below an average level. So it is entirely possible that domestic cheeses, except those from Wisconsin, are sold with a low speed which is far behind the average speed of imported cheeses. Meanwhile, the information mentioned tells us that the top five is selected at their newest store. Obviously, there is no more convincing information about whether domestic cheeses, even those from Wisconsin, are best-selling throughout United States, even in the company’s old stores.

Moreover, to support his assumption of the advantage of selling domestic cheese, the president unnecessarily mentions a recent survey. As we know, a survey is a statistical method which can not be truly effective to reflect the truth of a trend in that the result can be influenced by many inevitably negative factors. List two of them below. Perhaps the conductors’ inclination arising from the economic behalf between the magazine and enterprises will result in that areas where the survey is conducted are places where domestic cheeses are popular. Also, perhaps the respondents’ quantity and representativeness affected by the expansion of the survey render the result of the survey unconvincing to represent the whole state or different ages. Further, even if domestic cheeses are truly in an increasing preference in the subscribers, hardly is the president to imagine that the selling of them will keep in an ascending state in future.

Last but not least, the president is too cursory to deem that the decrease of expenses resulted from the cut of the imported chesses’ inventory will generate increased profits. There is no doubt that profit is an outcome determined by both expenses and incomes. If the selling of imported cheeses will be, even are being, popular than domestic throughout the United State, how the president conceive of enhanced profits with the loss of sufficient incomes provided by imported cheeses? Consequently, the president’s suggestion is inadvisable.

In sum, the suggestion in the memo is unacceptable if the president fails to provide us with detailed and all-round evidence about the sell record about both imported and domestic cheese. To support his conclusion, the president should also work out a well-organized plan and system to calculate the reasonable profits as well as expenses.

[ 本帖最后由 welcomebs 于 2007-2-25 02:43 编辑 ]

小猫儿UID: 2297873

The president of a chain of cheese stores suggest the company to concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses and decrease their varieties of imported cheese in that the president assumes that domestic cheeses are mostly prevailing the cheese market and to reduce the expenses of inventory for imported cheese will bring about the increased profits. But through close scrutiny of the evidence reveals several logical flaws which I will point out below. To begin with, the president unfairly assumes that the sell of domestic cheeses are in a favorable state just from the evidences of “the five best-selling cheeses”. From the information the author provides us, the five best-selling cheeses are from Wisconsin which can probably not present the whole domestic cheeses. It is the same as the judgment of a quality of a whole class – no any class can be considered as the best one if only one student in it is the most excellent student in the school while others parallel or stand below an average level. So it is entirely possible that domestic cheeses, except those from Wisconsin, are sold with a low speed which is far behind the average speed of imported cheeses. Meanwhile, the information mentioned tells us that the top five is selected at their newest store. Obviously, there is no more convincing information about whether domestic cheeses, even those from Wisconsin, are best-selling throughout United States, even in the company’s old stores. 比喻很好,赞一下~ Moreover, to support his assumption of the advantage of selling domestic cheese, the president unnecessarily mentions a recent survey. As we know, a survey is a statistical method which can not be truly effective to reflect the truth of a trend in that the result can be influenced by many inevitably negative factors. List two of them below. Perhaps the conductors’ inclination arising from the economic behalf between the magazine and enterprises will result in that areas where the survey is conducted are places where domestic cheeses are popular. Also, perhaps the respondents’ quantity and representativeness affected by the expansion of the survey render the result of the survey unconvincing to represent the whole state or different ages. Further, even if domestic cheeses are truly in an increasing preference in the subscribers, hardly is the president to imagine that the selling of them will keep in an ascending state in future. (偶也尝试过一段写几个相关的小错误,但是貌似每个都说不透,被批了~so还是在每一个上面写深写透好一些~) Last but not least, the president is too cursory to deem that the decrease of expenses resulted from the cut of the imported chesses’ inventory will generate increased profits. There is no doubt that profit is an outcome determined by both expenses and incomes. If the selling of imported cheeses will be, even are being, popular than domestic throughout the United State, how the president conceive of enhanced profits with the loss of sufficient incomes provided by imported cheeses? (还是没有继续写透,imported cheeses 的利润怎样影响结论)Consequently, the president’s suggestion is inadvisable. In sum, the suggestion in the memo is unacceptable if the president fails to provide us with detailed and all-round evidence about the sell record about both imported and domestic cheese. To support his conclusion, the president should also work out a well-organized plan and system to calculate the reasonable profits as well as expenses.

感觉到后面写的有点着急了,没有写透~^_^