argument147 [AWB小组]第四次作业

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第一次限时写，质量不太高
TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.


The arguer advocates his conclusion by citing evidence concerning a survey about what features the players thought were most important, and an advertising campaign targeted at people 10 to 25 years old group. However, further examing the deduction we may found how goundless it is.

To begin with, the question that what feature players thought were most significant in this survey is loaded in itself. Although according to the results that they prefer lifelike graphic, it is quite possible that they will not or are not able to buy, because of its high price, or other weak points in the game, such as terrible background music or boring designed lines, or they cannot afford the up-to-date computers at all. All of these possibilities will prevent them from picking up a game of lifelike graphics. Therefore, it is my persuasion that a favourable question towards the consumers should be what kind of video game they tend to buy.

Even consumers are indeed fond of video games providing lifelike graphics, Whirlwind's strategy to attract the certain age group people still should be called into question. The author unreasonably assumed that 10 to 25 years old ones are most likely to play video games without providing concrete statistics or survey to substantiate that this group accounts for large amounts of the total game players. Perhaps they have to spend lots of time in study and their spare time is supervised by parents; perhaps, on the other hand, the middle aged group are capable to afford the expensive computer games, and the most up-to-date computers as the arguer advocates. Thus, the campaign directed at 10 to 25 years old is too narrowed and may ignore main consumers of their viedeo game.

Furthermore, granted that Whirlwind targets at the right consumer group, the author's conclusion about the sales of video game are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months is highly ungranteed. In such a short time span, to acheive such great profits, it comes to quite much doubts: Whirlwind will not possibly earn a substantial profit merely by this simple strategy. The author provides no information about the costs involoved in designing program, buying patent, advertisment, saling, etc. If so, then the costs might prevent Whirlwind from earning a profit. Meanwhile, the fact that the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years infers that the game might have certain shortcomings that will cause the decrease as a result. In short, without more information about production, popularization cost, without weighing revenue aginst expenses the author's notion is premature at best.

In sum, the author cannot justify his voting recommendation on the basis of the scant evidence provided in the argument. To better evaluate the reliability of the survey upon which the author's conclusion depends, I would need more information about whether the age group is the main consumers target and this potential video games will definitely have a promising market.