argument147【07-10G 梦开始的地方】 第1次作文 by kongrui

kongruiUID: 2272793

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 493        TIME:……       DATE: 2007-6-19 21:42

提纲：1 我们不知道过去两年该公司销售量下降的原因是什么，如果不针对此原因提出改进措施，并不能保证这个广告活动能够刺激销售量。
      2 该调查的对象，范围，年龄段不明确，我们不能从该调查中了解这是不是10－25岁目标人群对游戏的喜好倾向。
      3 即使进行了广告宣传，也不能保证该年龄层的玩家就会购买该公司的产品。
      4 也许还会有其他的因素影响销售量，而作者忽略了对另外因素的考虑。
  
   Relying on a survey which indicate the players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics requiring the most up-to-date
computers, the editorial concludes that the Whirlwind's advertising campaign of several such games directed at people 10 to
25 years old will change the situation of the two years decline of Whirlwind video games and make a dramatic increase. The
editorial suffers from several problems, which render it unconvincing as it stands.
   First of all, the argument fails to explain why the sales of Whirwind video games declined in the past two years. It is
possible that there are some deep-seated problems existed. For instance, inefficient production, weak sale policy,
passionless workers, high price and some other reasons may also cause the decline. So just make an advertising campaign
instead of finding out the inner cause and resolve it, the editor can not convince me the recommendation for Wirlwind is
sound.
   Secondly, by relying on the recent survey to support its conclusion the argument depends on the assumption that this piece
of survey were made by players who are representatives of the company's potential customers. It is to say that the survey is
expected to be made by the people 10 to 25 years old, the sample is large enough and from the same area the campaign took
place. Yet it provides no evidence to support this assumption. It is possible that the most players the Whirlwind concerned
have no interest at such games at all. Without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable the editorial can
not rely on it to draw any firm conclusions about the overall opinion of the players.
   Thirdly, even assuming that the survey accurately reflects the 10-25 years players' will, the campaign is not sure to
work. The editorial gives me no clues about the exact size, the strategy, the form and the influence of the campaign. Lacking
information about the market situation and the details of the advertising campaign, the author can not confidently draw any
conclusions about the campaign's effect.
   A final problem with the argument is that other factors which may affect the sales are overlooked. Perhaps another company
producing these fashionable games has occupied the market and gained a stable reputation. The players are reasonable to
choose the renowned one instead of Whirlwind. If this kind of reason existed, Whirlwind is definitely having a long way to
walk.
   In sum, the editorial is logically unsound and relies on several doubtful assumptions. To strengthen it the speaker must
give me an exact reason of the Whirlwind video games' two years decline, and the company will make some changes directed to
those reasons. The speaker must also show that the survey accurately reflects the overall opinion of the 10-25 years old
players, and give more details about the advertising campaign to ensure me the campaign is resultful. Finally, to better
assess the argument I would need more information about other factors which may affect the result.

firedodoUID: 2295743

Relying on a survey which indicate the players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics requiring the most up-to-date computers(从句套从句好象不是很被推崇的样子), the editorial concludes that the Whirlwind's advertising campaign of several such games directed at people 10 to25 years old will change the situation of the two years decline of Whirlwind video games and make a dramatic increase. The editorial suffers from several problems, which render it unconvincing as it stands.(很经典的开头方法,但是官方范文里好象少有大段重复文章内容的.是不是可以考虑减少对调查细节的描述?)
   

First of all, the argument fails to explain why the sales of Whirwind video games declined in the past two years. It is possible that there are some deep-seated problems existed. For instance, inefficient production, weak sale policy, passionless workers, high price and some other reasons may also(also?和什么一起also) cause the decline. So just(是不是应该改成simply) make an advertising campaign instead of finding out the inner cause and resolve it, the editor can not convince me the recommendation for Wirlwind is sound.这一段的立意无疑是很好的,我写的时候都没有想到.但是,在语言组织上,最好能把问题分开说,说细,避免同意反复
   

Secondly, by relying on the recent survey to support its conclusion the argument depends on the assumption that this piece of survey were made by players who are representatives of the company's potential customers(倒不是说这样不好，只是范文好象都会在陈述的同时顺便点出问题). It is to say that the survey is expected to be made by the people 10 to 25 years old, the sample is large enough and from the same area the campaign took place. Yet it provides no evidence to support this assumption. It is possible that the most players the Whirlwind concerned have no interest at such games at all(不错的表达法,值得学习:loveliness: ). Without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable the editorial can not rely on it to draw any firm conclusions about the overall opinion of the players.(还是那个问题,论证略微显得单薄了一些,最好能将奋起余勇追穷寇,用连续的打击让这个编辑再也不敢写了)

   Thirdly, even assuming that the survey accurately reflects the 10-25 years players' will, the campaign is not sure to work. The editorial gives me no clues about the exact size, the strategy, the form and the influence of the campaign. Lacking(lack本身就是一个名词啊) information about the market situation and the details of the advertising campaign, the author can not confidently draw any conclusions about the campaign's effect.

A final problem with the argument is that other factors which may affect the sales are overlooked. Perhaps another company producing these fashionable games has occupied the market and gained a stable reputation. The players are reasonable to choose the renowned one instead of Whirlwind. If this kind of reason existed, Whirlwind is definitely having a long way to walk.

In sum, the editorial is logically unsound and relies on several doubtful assumptions. To strengthen it the speaker must give me an exact reason of the Whirlwind video games' two years decline, and the company will make some changes directed to those reasons. The speaker must also show that the survey accurately reflects the overall opinion of the 10-25 years old players, and give more details about the advertising campaign to ensure me the campaign is resultful. Finally, to better assess the argument I would need more information about other factors which may affect the result.(结尾段写得比主体段落还长哦)

语言上面没有什么问题,看上去挺清新自然的.就是在文章组织上，好象还可以把4个论点缩成三个,增强论证力度.比如说阁下第3\4\1点其实就是讲一个事:广告不一定有用.加油!LZ还是很有希望的

改得不好,也没在规定时间改,见谅.

kongruiUID: 2272793

谢谢 firedodo :loveliness:
这是我第一篇作文，之前一直是看范文，感觉无从下手。憋了很久才凑出这篇文章，用了很多范文的句式。现在还正在发愁那篇Issue呢。
我也觉得自己的论证部分比较薄弱，不是很有力的样子，很多语句也有罗嗦和重复。多谢指点，下次一定改正！