Argument57 【SWEETBOX小组】第七次作业 by mayiming

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======================Argument 57==================
The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.
"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."

In this argument ,the arguer cites the evidence that only 25 percent of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor’s direction developed new ulcers,compared to 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba,base on which he assumes that Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers.In addition ,the arguer take it for granted that many first time ulcer can be prevented if health experts inform the general public of the fact above.As it stands,the argument is vulnerable in several aspects.
       First of all，the argument does not give the exact number of how many patients were studied .The conclusion would not be pursuasive if the study was taken in a small local hospital and the statistic may be misleading .To establish a casual relationship between the conclusion and the statistics,the arguer has to show how large the example is or the conclusion would be groundless.The healthy condition of patience is not given,it is very likely that the doctor only give Zorba to patience with better condition and treat other patience with a more conservative method.
In addition ,first-time ulcer patients may not represent all ulcer patients on the problem of recurrence of ulcer.There may be so many differences between first-time ulcer patients and other kinds of ulcer patients that one need additional information to judge whether it is effective in preventing recurrnet ulcers for all kind of patience.Without the statistic of other kind of ulcer patience ,I will keep may word on whether Zorba has a effect on preventing recurrence of ulcer.
Last but not least,even if zorba may be effective in preventing recurrent ulcers,it is still groundless to reach the conclusion that it may also be effective in preventing ulcers.Preventing ulcer and its recurrence are two different things and though it may be optimistic to expect Zorba works on preventing first-time , the arguer still have to explore more detail information to support his conclusion.
In sum,the relationship between Zorba and recurrence of ulcer may be very complicated.The evidence shown by the arguer are too vague to make any sense.One need to know much evidence such as how the study was conducted ,in which place the study took place and how many patience took part in the study,the condition of the patience ,to justify whether the conclusion is reached by a scientific method rather than by accident.To illustrate that Zorba is highly effective in preventing recurrence of ulcer,the arguer need to give more detail information of the study statistics.
(word 416 time 60 m)