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65.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States."For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

Words: 555     time: 45mins

In this argument, the speaker claims that in order to improve profits in all of stores, the company should stop to stock imported cheese concentrated primarily on domestic cheese. To support this assertion, the speaker provides the evidence that the five best selling cheeses at their newest store were all domestic cheeses from Wisconsin in the last year. Moreover, the speaker cites the result of survey showing that there is an increasing preference for domestic cheeses. The recommendation seems compelling at the first glance, however, on careful examination, there are several fallacies which make the argument unconvincing.

First of all, the phenomenon that the increasing preference for domestic cheeses among subscribers can hardly give any support that the proportion of domestic cheeses is higher than that of imported cheeses. In fact, this increasing preference of domestic cheeses has no correlation with imported cheeses. It can only indicate people are more likely to buy domestic cheeses than ever before. That is, the consumption of imported cheeses is still much higher than domestic cheeses. Even if this increasing preference will make the consumption of domestic cheeses higher that imported cheeses,   it probably takes a very long time. So, without provide the statistics of the proportion of the two kind cheeses and the increasing rate, the assertion that stocking domestic cheeses instead of imported cheeses is unbelievable.

Second, the evidence that five best selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cheeses from Wisconsin throw little support to its final analysis. It is perhaps that the newest store implements some promotion on these domestic cheeses. Or it is might that this new store is located in Wisconsin and people like to buy they cheese of their hometown. Furthermore, even if the newest store has no difference with others and people there are same with people in other places, the only one store experience would be likely unsuitable for others. If any of the possibilities is the fact, the recommendation will likely bring great loss but not profits. In short, without ruling out these and those possibilities, the assertion that all stores should do as the newest stores is of deep doubt.

The last but not the least, even if the evidence provided by the speaker is convincing, there is still fallacies in the argument. The profits is a function of cost and revenue and likewise the revenue is a function of consummation and price. So only taking consummation into account makes the argument not as convincing as it stands. It is possible that the price of imported cheeses is much higher than domestic cheeses. So even the stores sell less imported cheeses than domestic cheeses, the revenue of imported cheeses is still much higher. Moreover, it also probably that the money spent on stocking domestic cheeses is more than that of imported cheeses which makes the cost of domestic higher. If any is true, the new policy will certainly causes a loss to the company.

In sum, this argument is not as convincing as it stands. To better evaluate it, I need more information about why the five best selling cheeses in the newest store are domestic cheeses. To make it more convincing, the speaker should provide more statistics on the proportion of the two kinds of cheeses in market and cost and revenue of each cheese.