Argument137

nbta03UID：2326371

137.The following appeared in an editorial in the Mason City newspaper.

"At present, Mason City residents seldom use the nearby MasonRiver for any kind of recreational activity, even though surveys of the region's
residents consistently rank water sports (swimming, fishing, and boating) as a favorite form of recreation. Since there have been complaints about
the quality of the water in the river, residents must be avoiding the river because they think that it is not clean enough. But that situation is about to
change: the agency responsible for rivers in our region has announced plans to clean up MasonRiver. Therefore, recreational use of
the river is likely to increase, so the Mason City council will need to increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the
Mason River."


In the argument, the arguer advocates that the Mason City council should increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the MasonRiver, for that recreational use of the river will probably increase. In support of the recommendation, the arguer points out that the survey of the local residents consistently rank water sports as a favor of recreation. Additionaly, the arguer also reasons that residents avoiding the river since there have been complaint about the quality of the water in the river. Furthermore, arguer also cites that the local agency reponsible for rivers has announced plans to clean up MasonRiver. The argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

In the first, the survey of the local residents to the assumption is vague. The survey reveals that the local resident like water sports, but it does not provide any information that they like do water sports in MasonRiver. Maybe a lot of residents prefer to swimming in a swimming
pool, surfing in the sea, fishing in a fishing club. There are more places other than in MasonRiver that people can do water sports. Additionally, we know nothing from the argument the way the survey is conducted, the representativeness of the respondents in the all local residents. Without more detailed information about the survey, the arguer's conclusion is not convincing.

In the second, the arguer confuse causal relation with correlation. The arguer just assumes that people avoid the river because of the complaints about the quality of the water in the river. Maybe people now have less leisure time to do water sports. Or it is possible that quality of living is better than before, people have person pool in their houses and they need not to go to a public river for water sports. The arguer should rule out all other reasons that prevent residents to go to the river to make the assumption logical acceptable.

Finally, the arguer make a hasty generalization. The arguer indication that the recreational use of the river will probably increase does not have any informational support.  After the river is cleaned, the residents maybe just go to have a walk , or even do favorite sports. It is quite likely that few people will go there again, let alone the increase use. The assumption of the increase use along the MasonRiver is misleading unless more information is presented.

In sum, the argument lack credibility because the arguer does not provide convincing evidence to what claims in the argument. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence concerning the local residents recreation. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information about the possibility of the increase of the recreational use.

提纲：
205.The following appeared in a recommendation from the president of Amburg's Chamber of Commerce.
"Last October the city of Belleville installed high intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg has recently begun police patrols on bicycles in its business district but the rate of vandalism there remains constant. Since
high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime, we should install such lighting throughout Amburg. By reducing
crime in this way, we can revitalize the declining neighborhoods in our city."


1、破还公物的行为减少并不一定是因为安装了高照度灯光，有可能是各个商家的防盗措施的提升，或是警车巡逻力度的加大。
2在B有效的方法在A不一定适用，A的警车巡逻的力度有可能不够才导致了其公物破坏率持高不下。
3．A的市民减少不一定是因为犯罪率高，应考虑其他方面，如公共设施、医疗保障、就业等

34.Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium, substances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore believe that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis, a disease in which the bones weaken significantly with age and that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors. But a long-term study of a large number of people has found that those who have consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study. Since bone fractures are a symptom of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis.

1．  调查的结果不可信，样本是否充足，骨折有可能是运动员或者老人，发生几率本身就大，并非食用奶制品。
2．  骨折不一定就是得病，这只是一个症状，有可能是意外或者别的疾病。
3．  就算几率比较大， 不一定是奶制品得问题，有可能是基因或者环境

25.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."


1．旅客增加，商业发展，税收上涨，不一定是因为高尔夫球场和旅馆的开设，有可能是宏观经济的改善，城市经济本身的发展
2．OV的例子不一定适用H
3．开了高尔夫和旅店不一定就能改善经济，过多的支出可能会入不敷出，使城市的发展面临新问题， 而且还有他法。

9.The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at OmegaUniversity.

"Fifteen years ago, OmegaUniversity implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby AlphaUniversity. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, OmegaUniversity should now terminate student evaluation of professors."


1．成绩上升有可能评分制度增加了师生的积极性，可能是学生真的更加努力了，所以成绩提高
2．O的分数不一定就贬值了，A有可能也采用了评分制度，A的成功可能是专业对口，而O的专业不适应市场需求。
3．采用O的制度不一定能找到好的工作，要看市场或者专业的情况。


[ 本帖最后由 nbta03 于 2007-7-21 01:00 编辑 ]

kattystarUID：2315333

Argument137



In the argument, the arguer advocates that the Mason City council should increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the MasonRiver, for that recreational use of the river will probably increase. In support of the recommendation, the arguer points out that the survey of the local residents consistently rank water sports as a favor of recreation. Additionaly, the arguer also reasons that residents avoiding the river since there have been complaint about the quality of the water in the river. Furthermore, arguer also cites that the local agency reponsible for rivers has announced plans to clean up MasonRiver. However, the argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

In the first, the survey of the local residents to the assumption is vague. The survey reveals that the local resident like water sports, but it does not provide any information that they like do water sports in MasonRiver. Maybe a lot of residents prefer to swimming in a swimming
pool, surfing in the sea, fishing in a fishing club. There are more places other than in MasonRiver that people can do water sports. Additionally, we know nothing from the argument the way the survey is conducted, the representativeness of the respondents in the all local residents. Without more detailed information about the survey, the arguer's conclusion is not convincing.

In the second, the arguer confuse(S) causal relation with correlation. The arguer just assumes that people avoid the river because of the complaints about the quality of the water in the river. Maybe people now have less leisure time to do water sports. Or it is possible that quality of living is better than before, people have person(AL) pool in their houses and they need not to go to a public river for water sports. The arguer should rule out all other reasons that prevent residents to go to the river to make the assumption logical acceptable.

Finally, the arguer make(s) a hasty generalization. The arguer('s) indication that the recreational use of the river will probably increase does not have any informational support.  After the river is cleaned, the residents maybe just go to have a walk , or even do favorite sports. It is quite likely that few people will go there again, let alone the increase(d) use. The assumption of the increase use along the MasonRiver is misleading unless more information is presented.

In sum, the argument lack(S) credibility because the arguer does not provide convincing evidence to what claims in the argument. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence(s) concerning the local residents recreation. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information about the possibility of the increase of the recreational use.

提纲：
205.The following appeared in a recommendation from the president of Amburg's Chamber of Commerce.
"Last October the city of Belleville installed high intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg has recently begun police patrols on bicycles in its business district but the rate of vandalism there remains constant. Since
high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime, we should install such lighting throughout Amburg. By reducing
crime in this way, we can revitalize the declining neighborhoods in our city."


1、破还公物的行为减少并不一定是因为安装了高照度灯光，有可能是各个商家的防盗措施的提升，或是警车巡逻力度的加大。
2在B有效的方法在A不一定适用，A的警车巡逻的力度有可能不够才导致了其公物破坏率持高不下。
3．A的市民减少不一定是因为犯罪率高，应考虑其他方面，如公共设施、医疗保障、就业等

34.Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium, substances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore believe that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis, a disease in which the bones weaken significantly with age and that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors. But a long-term study of a large number of people has found that those who have consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study. Since bone fractures are a symptom of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis.

1．  调查的结果不可信，样本是否充足，骨折有可能是运动员或者老人，发生几率本身就大，并非食用奶制品。
2．  骨折不一定就是得病，这只是一个症状，有可能是意外或者别的疾病。
3．  就算几率比较大， 不一定是奶制品得问题，有可能是基因或者环境

25.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."


1．旅客增加，商业发展，税收上涨，不一定是因为高尔夫球场和旅馆的开设，有可能是宏观经济的改善，城市经济本身的发展
2．OV的例子不一定适用H
3．开了高尔夫和旅店不一定就能改善经济，过多的支出可能会入不敷出，使城市的发展面临新问题， 而且还有他法。

9.The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at OmegaUniversity.

1．成绩上升有可能评分制度增加了师生的积极性，可能是学生真的更加努力了，所以成绩提高
2．O的分数不一定就贬值了，A有可能也采用了评分制度，A的成功可能是专业对口，而O的专业不适应市场需求。
3．采用O的制度不一定能找到好的工作，要看市场或者专业的情况。



其他看不出什么来了，感觉你的文章已经很不错了，改得不对的地方请告诉我，本人水平实在有限，呵呵