Argument153 [Mettle 7.22] by werecat

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153The following is from an editorial in the Midvale Observer, a local newspaper.
"Ever since the 1950's, when television sets began to appear in the average home, the rate of crimes committed by teenagers in the country of Alta has steadily increased. This increase in teenage crime parallels the increase in violence shown on television. According to several national studies, even very young children who watch a great number of television shows featuring violent scenes display more violent behavior within their home environment than do children who do not watch violent shows. Furthermore, in a survey conducted by the Observer, over 90 percent of the respondents were parents who indicated that prime-time television—programs that are shown between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m.—should show less violence. Therefore, in order to lower the rate of teenage crime in Alta, television viewers should demand that television programmers reduce the amount of violence shown during prime time."


In the editorial the writer suggests that the TV viewers of Alta should demand the TV programmers to reduce th amount of violence shown during prime time due to the following reasons:1.the rate of crimes committed by teenages in Alta has steadily increased ever since the TV appeared in average home in th 1950's. 2.Some nationwide studies confirm that even very young children will behave more violently after watching a great number of violent TV shows. 3.In a survey concerning the parents' attitudes toward violent programmes by the Observer, 90% of the respondents felt that the prime time TV programmes should show less violence. However, we can not come to an authoritive conclusion solely depends on the evidences given above, there exist some logical fallacies and reasoning faults.

First of all, there are no clear clues indict the relationship between the rising of crimes ratio and the widely spreading of TV sets. The chances are probably that the appearance of TV in the average home ever since the 1950's just coincide with the crime climax in Alta. Considering the specific period of time--1950's, it is not impossible to assume that those infants born after WWII has grown up, and as it is common acknowledged that this generation is very rebelous in every field. Moreover, it is more likely to be just some logical fallacy called "cum hoc, ergo prot hoc", which means two things happened co-evally, thus they must have causal relationship. However the truth may more like to turn out that the appearance of TV in common households and the crimes committed by teenagers are just two paralell things without direct links.

Secondly, national studies are not guaranteed to adapt well in the region of Alta. We can not neglect the possibility that the population structure of Alta is somehow different from the average of the nation, therefore the national applied conclusions does not work well in Alta. Furthermore, the term "very young" is too vague to be a word appeared in scientific reports. So we can not rely too much to national reports without considering the local situations.

Thirdly, the survey conducted by the Observer is suspicious, too. As no details of the survey such as the backgrounds and numbers of the samples, the area where this survey was delivered and etc. was provided, the disinterestness and validity of the survey remain a doubt. It is still a chance that the survey was conducted in a single neighbourhood and only tens of people was queried, then it is hardly believable to represent the whole opinion of all the people in Alta.

In sum, although the initiation of the writer about reducing violence on TV is admirable, there are several faults that hinder the editorial to be convincing. Before all of us can accept the writer's viewpoint willingly, he must make the following amendments: 1.Present us with the definite and scientific confirmations of the relationship between TV violence and teenagers' behaviours. 2.Distinguish clearly the local difference and the national average situations, better compareing the states of Alta and the nationwide statistics. 3.Provide us with the details of the survey so that we can judge its validity.

[ 本帖最后由 werecat 于 2007-7-22 18:48 编辑 ]

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