Argument45 勇往直前小组第五次作业nbta03

nbta03UID：2326371

45The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."


In the argument, the arguer concludes that the reduction in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea, which caused by the global warming. To support the conclusion, the arguer cite the a report from local hunters in which the deer populations are declining. In addition, the arguer reasons that these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt. At first glance, the argument appear to be appealing, while a close examination on it reveals how groundless it is.

First, the arguer provide no evidence to claims that the decline of the arctic deers is caused of being unable to cross the frozen sea. The arguer assumes that this is the only reason why the deers decrease. A lot of factors would lead to this result, such as the change of living patterns, the lack of foods, over hunting, the climate disaster. It maybe has a change on the living pattern of the deer that do not cross the sea, but it would not inevitably lead to the death of the deer. The arguer could not simply contribute the result to just one reason. Unless the arguer rule out the other possibilities, the assumption is not convincing.

Second, the arguer makes the assumption that recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt. We know nothing about whether the trends have a influence on the environment where the arctic deers live. Maybe the climate in Canada's arctic region where the deers live stay the same as it used to be or even get colder. Thus, the ice will not be melt, which would not prevents deers’ migration. Moreover, the argument provide no information that the global warming trends kill the deers, maybe just a change in living habit.

Finally, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. The arguer presents no information that the way the report from local hunters is conducted, the amount of the reporters, the representativeness in whole region. If there are only a few hunters say that, it is misleading to make a assumption based on it. Furthermore, it is likely that the hunters just do not find the deer,  or that the district where the deers live is different from those of hunters. Thus, the argument could’t make the conclusion draw from the report.

In sum, the argument lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the argument does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To make the argument logically acceptable, the arguer would have to provide more evidence concerning the report from the hunters and the global clmite change. Additionaly, the arguer must provide evidence to rule out other possible causes of the decline in the arctic deers.


                                                                                                              

提纲
4 The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.

"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."


1.人数多不代表业务好，服务佳，还有工作能力，
2．过去的情况不代表将来，可能其他的年份FR的表现更好，更好的售价不表示能卖更多的房子
3．作者的房子卖的快不一定是A的服务更好，供求关系，经济改善


185The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the SunnysideTowers apartment building to its manager.

"One month ago, all the showerheads on the first five floors of SunnysideTowers were modified to restrict the water flow to approximately 1/3 of its original force. Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment. Clearly, restricting water flow throughout all the 20 floors of SunnysideTowers will increase our profits further."


1．  水压下不代表用水量小，不一定节省开支
2．  有投诉说明对这种方法的不满，可能还有更多的不满未提出
3．  如果住户不满退房，收入反而会减少。水费只是很小的开支，减少不一定会减少开支

129The following appeared in the Sherwood Times newspaper.

"A recent study reported that pet owners have longer, healthier lives on average than do people who own no pets. Specifically, dog owners tend to have a lower incidence of heart disease. In light of these findings, SherwoodHospital should form a partnership with Sherwood Animal Shelter to institute an 'adopt-a-dog' program. The program would encourage dog ownership for patients recovering from heart disease, which will help reduce medical costs by reducing the number of these patients needing ongoing treatment. In addition, the publicity about the program will encourage more people to adopt pets from the shelter, which will reduce the risk of heart disease in the general population."


1．  调查的可信性，是否还有别的原因影响健康，生活习惯，生活压力
2．  就算养宠物能预防心脏病，但不代表能治疗心脏病
3．  说不定这种治疗方法更贵，不一定减少医疗费用
4．  推广的意义

212The following appeared in a memorandum from the new president of the Patriot car manufacturing company.

"In the past, the body styles of Patriot cars have been old-fashioned, and our cars have not sold as well as have our competitors' cars. But now, since many regions in this country report rapid increases in the numbers of newly licensed drivers, we should be able to increase our share of the market by selling cars to this growing population. Thus, we should discontinue our oldest models and concentrate instead on manufacturing sporty cars. We can also improve the success of our marketing campaigns by switching our advertising to the Youth Advertising agency, which has successfully promoted the country's leading soft drink."
1不受欢迎不一定是款式过时，可能是质量，服务，价格
2驾驶员的增加不代表汽车销量增加，有可能会租车
3没有证据说运动型汽车更受欢迎
4 YA在饮料广告上成功不代表汽车广告能成功，两个是不同的商品，策略不同，对象不同