Argument99 【戮力同心小组】第一次习作

地球的小星星UID: 2345848

99. The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.

“Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Acundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country’s balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it.”

The argument is not cogent because it assumes that the stated correlation between the use of this new kind of seed and the more yields this year in Acundia implies the cause-and-effect relationship, which is not necessarily the case.

First of all, the arguer may overlook (and potentially more significant) other causes of the harvest in Acundia. Nor does the mere fact that the use of this newly developed variety of rice seed lend strong support to the result. It is entirely possible that the country suffered a harsh soil condition for the reason of environment pollution in the previous years and therefore very bad yields in agriculture, but last year, attributed to the melioration, the yield improved at a very fast speed. Also, we cannot preclude the possibility that maybe the climate last year-moist and warm-was very arable for rice sprouts; but in the previous years, the country had been enduring an arid and torrid weather.

Second, even if we accept that the situation in Acundia is successful in that country, we cannot conclude the same strategy will achieve the identical effect when applying to Paucia or any other country. If the experience to cultivate rice in Acundia should be emulated, the economic minister must assume that all the relevant circumstances are essentially the same. However, this assumption is unreasonable. The physical terrain, for example, may be covered with large plain in Acundia; whereas, the region in Paucia is mountainous and short of water. Other elements such as the humidity of the climate and the planting experience of field may also qualify the growth of this new kind of rice.

Finally, even though we concede that this new kind of rice grows well in Paucia, there is absolutely no evidence provided that it can help to increase the income of farmers and to improve the country’s balance of trade.  People’s taste of foodstuff in Paucia is, in fact, traditional and preferred to the crops. They cannot change their preference in a short time just because the harvest of rice; hence, there is no market for rice and farmers may not get the cost back and say nothing of the increase of income. Besides, who can guarantee the channel of exporting the rice, given Acundia has a good prospect of rice, why should other countries import the rice of Paucia?

To conclude, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. Before we accept the conclusion, the minister must present more evidence concerning to this new kind of rice seed and the planting condition also its market in Paucia.

提纲
1.因果关系不成立
2.即使成立不能借鉴
3.即使借鉴不能达到预期

[ 本帖最后由 地球的小星星 于 2007-7-26 19:51 编辑 ]