Argument48 [勇往直前小组]第九交响曲bynbta03

nbta03UID：2326371

48 - The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.

"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
WORDS: 390 (465moidified)        TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-7-28 18:08:19

In the argument, the arguer concludes that the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause of citizens' less physical fitness and fitness levels will improve when the economy does. At first glance the argument seem to be appealing, while a careful examination reveals how groundless it is.

Firstly, the assumption that citizens  who are adequately fit are less than those of twenty years ago is unconvincing. Although the percentage of fit citizens is 25% today compared to the 50% twenty years ago, the arguer can not surely reach the conclusion. The arguer provide nothing about the exact number of the citizens. It is possible that the today's population is far more bigger than that two decades ago and then fit citizens may be much more than twenty years ago. Moreover , maybe the standard for adequate physical fitness is totally different after such a long period and then the comparison is of no meaning without more exact data.

Second, even if the highest overall fitness levels regions are those where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it does not follow that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. It is different between owning more computers and using computers. Perhaps the people of high computer owning region use computers quite rarely. Then the conclusion is not convincing. At the same time, the arguer does not give any information about other regions so that we can not have a overall view on the citizens' fitness level. These factors all weaken the assumption that the using computers has little to do with the physically fitness.

Finally, the arguer confuse causal relation with correlation. No evidence is provided to support that this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services cause the low fitness level. Fitness is affected by many other factors, such as living habit, diet, doing sports, work pressure. The arguer should not contribute the result to only one factor, which is even less relevant. Granted that the decline in economy results in the low fitness level, the level will improve when do the economy. It is likely that people have to work harder to improve the economy and they become more and more tied, which could cause an even lower fitness level. The arguer would have to take all other relevant factors into account to make the conclusion convincing.

To sum up, the argument lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the it does not lend strong support to what the arguer claims. To strengthen the argument , the arguer would have to provide more information concerning the real factor of fitness of the citizens in Corpora. Additionally, the arguer should also rule out all other  factors which would probably affect the fitness to make the conclusion logically acceptable.

PudingUID：2364107

In the argument, the arguer concludes that the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause of citizens' less physical fitness and fitness levels will improve when the economy does. At first glance the argument seem(seems) to be appealing, while a careful examination reveals how groundless it is.

Firstly, the assumption that citizens who are adequately fit are less than those of twenty years ago is unconvincing. Although the percentage of fit citizens is 25% today compared to the 50% twenty years ago, the arguer can not surely reach the conclusion. The arguer provide nothing about the exact number of the citizens. It is possible that the today's population is far more(去掉) bigger than that two decades ago and then fit citizens may be much more than twenty years ago. Moreover, maybe the standard for adequate physical fitness is totally different after such a long period and then the comparison is of no meaning without more exact data. （偶觉得这个点攻击的不好，这样攻击不是成绝对数值了？？）

Second, even if the highest overall fitness levels regions are those where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it does not follow that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit.（这里要把原文的原因再说一遍） It is different between owning more computers and using computers. Perhaps the people of high computer owning region use computers quite rarely.(还要再展开一些) Then the conclusion is not convincing. At the same time, the arguer does not give any information about other regions so that we can not have a(an) overall view on the citizens' fitness level. These factors all weaken the assumption that the using computers has little to do with the physically fitness.

Finally, the arguer confuse(confuses) causal relation with correlation. No evidence is provided to support that this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services cause the low fitness level. Fitness is affected by many other factors, such as living habit, diet, doing sports, work pressure. The arguer should not contribute the result to only one factor, which is even less relevant. Granted that the decline in economy results in the low fitness level, the level will improve when do(dose) the economy. It is likely that people have to work harder to improve the economy and they become more and more tied, which could cause an even lower fitness level. The arguer would have to take all other relevant factors into account to make the conclusion convincing.

To sum up, the argument lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the(去掉) it does not lend strong support to what the arguer claims. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more information concerning the real factor of fitness of the citizens in Corpora. Additionally, the arguer should also rule out all other factors which would probably affect the fitness to make the conclusion logically acceptable.

错误少一个：经济复苏了一定会更健康

[ 本帖最后由 Puding 于 2007-7-29 23:00 编辑 ]