argument167 [0710G 戴三个表冲刺小组] 第11次作业

pinuoUID: 2328081

Syllabus:

   1.参加调查的人数少，且只有3周，时间太短。
    2.说明第一周服用以前的安眠药，睡的较好；第二周，不服用安眠药，没有第一周好，
      第三周睡的比前两周更长，更香。没有说明其他因素对试验的影响，
      1>可能第三周的环境更适于睡眠，如温度，外面的噪声，而第二周要差些；
      2>试验者自己的情况影响，如第二周，工作压力较之一三周要大，或者，第二周白天睡觉太多了。
        或者没有一三周锻炼的多，晚上会比较困。
    3.即使没有2.的其他因素的影响，第三周睡的好也可能是lavender疗效以外的因素引起的，
      1>病人第二周睡眠不好，所以第三周要好些；
      2>病人第一二周对试验的环境还不熟悉，第一周因为有原来安眠药的作用，睡的较好，第二周就较差了，
        第三周对环境熟悉了，所以睡的较好。
    4.即使没有这些因素的影响，文中没有提到三周后病人醒来后的情况，有可能睡的比前两周都长，都香，
      但醒来更困，则说说明lavender的效果并不好。

TOPIC: ARGUMENT167 - A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.

*A folk remedy is usually a plant-based form of treatment common to traditional forms of medicine, ones that developed before the advent of modern medical services and technology.
WORDS: 667          TIME: 00:44:22          DATE: 2007-8-5 12:11:11

In the argument the arguer introduced a folk remedy for insomnia. To prove its effectiveness, the arguer cited a recent study, in which 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room. The arguments are problematic in several aspects, thus render the conclusion unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the number of participants, 30, might constitutes an insufficient sample to draw any reliable conclusion that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia. And the arguer provides no detail information of the participants --their age, sex, physical condition, and the like. Maybe the remedy are more effective to women than to men, or more effective to young than to old men, then if the participant are young women, the result may better than to other group. That is the 30 volunteers may not representative to all the insomnia patients.

Even assume that the 30 volunteers can represent all the insomnia patients, the study period last for 3 weeks, which may be too short to draw a convincing conclusion. And there are some problems in the observation result of every week. The study shows that during the first week when taking their usual sleeping medication, volunteers slept soundly but wakened feeling tired, and during the second week when discontinuing their medication, the volunteers slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired, then the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than the previous two weeks. The observation results of each week lend little support to arguer's conclusion than he expected. First, without ruling out other factors which will influence the study, we cannot solely attribute the effects to remedy. The study environments may greatly affect the results. It is highly possible the temperature was too high or too low to sleep well in the second week, but the moderate temperature in the third week helped the volunteers sleep well. And the same as temperature, maybe there are more noise in the second week compared the third week. And the other factors related to volunteers might play an even more critical role in the study. The volunteers maybe under greater pressure from work or daily life than in the third week, or slept more in the day during the second week. All these will affect the volunteer to sleep better in the third week than in the second week. Second, even assume these factors had no significant different influence to the volunteers in the three weeks there are factors other than lavender will influence the study results. First factor, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks can be interpreted as a result of they did not slept well during the second week, they are more tired and more likely to sleep well. Another factor, the living environments, even assume there are no difference in the three weeks few will deny that the volunteers will be more accustomed to the environments than the in the second week, which will help them have a better sleep.

Finally, even assume the lavender has the significant effect as descript in the arguments, the arguers failed to provide the information of how the volunteers feel when they wake up which had been cleared informed in the previous two weeks. It is entirely possible that the volunteers were more tired when wake up during the third week, even though they slept longer and more soundly. If it is true, we can hardly conclude that the lavender can cures insomnia over a short period.

In sum, to convince me that the lavender has significant effect on insomnia, the arguer need provide evidence that the 30 volunteers are representative to all the insomnia patients and 3 weeks are long enough for the study. The arguer also need present clear evidence there are no factors both from the environments and the volunteers themselves will affect the results. To better asses the argument, I need to know how the volunteers feel when they wake up during the third week.

doris_gxcUID: 2370933

In the argument the arguer introduced a folk remedy for insomnia. To prove its effectiveness, the arguer cited a recent study, in which 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room. The arguments are problematic in several aspects, thus render the conclusion unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the number of participants, 30, might constitutes an insufficient sample to draw any reliable conclusion that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia. And the arguer provides no detail information of the participants --their age, sex, physical condition, and the like.(这里可以再加一句如It is possible that the efficiency of this therapy depands on one or two of these factors.) Maybe the remedy are more effective to women than to men, or more effective to young than to old men, then if the participant are young women, the result may better than to other group. That is the 30 volunteers may not representative to all the insomnia patients.

Even assume that the 30 volunteers can represent all the insomnia patients, the study period last for 3 weeks, which may be too short to draw a convincing conclusion.(愚见：The period, three weeks, of the study may be too short to..) And there are some problems in the observation result of every week. The study shows that during the first week when taking their usual sleeping medication, volunteers slept soundly but wakened feeling tired, and during the second week when discontinuing their medication, the volunteers slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired, then the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than the previous two weeks. （这里对原文的重述是没有太大必要的）The observation results of each week lend little support to arguer's conclusion than he expected. First, without ruling out other factors which will influence the study, we cannot solely attribute the effects to remedy. The study environments may greatly affect the results. It is highly possible the temperature was too high or too low to sleep well in the second week, but the moderate temperature in the third week helped the volunteers sleep well. （这个有些牵强，楼主应该可以找到更好的理由/可能性）And the same as temperature, maybe there are more noise in the second week compared the third week. And the other factors related to volunteers might play an even more critical role in the study. The volunteers maybe under greater pressure from work or daily life than in the third week, or slept more in the day during the second week. All these will affect the volunteer to sleep better in the third week than in the second week. Second, even assume these factors had no significant different influence to the volunteers in the three weeks there are factors other than lavender will influence the study results. First factor, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks can be interpreted as a result of they did not slept well during the second week, they are more tired and more likely to sleep well. Another factor, the living environments, even assume there are no difference in the three weeks few will deny that the volunteers will be more accustomed to the environments than the in the second week, which will help them have a better sleep. （这段总体感觉有点罗嗦）

Finally, even assume the lavender has the significant effect as descript in the arguments, the arguers failed to provide the information of how the volunteers feel when they wake up which had been cleared informed in the previous two weeks. It is entirely possible that the volunteers were more tired when wake up during the third week, even though they slept longer and more soundly. If it is true, we can hardly conclude that the lavender can cures insomnia over a short period.

In sum, to convince me that the lavender has significant effect on insomnia, the arguer need provide evidence that the 30 volunteers are representative to all the insomnia patients and 3 weeks are long enough for the study. The arguer also need present clear evidence there are no factors both from the environments and the volunteers themselves will affect the results. To better asses the argument, I need to know how the volunteers feel when they wake up during the third week.

[ 本帖最后由 doris_gxc 于 2007-8-6 21:34 编辑 ]

pinuoUID: 2328081

谢谢doris_gxc的批改。
1.愚见：The period, three weeks, of the study may be too short to..) －>高见，这种用法我收下了，谢谢。
2.这里可以再加一句如It is possible that the efficiency of this therapy depands on one or two of these factors.-－>是要明确一些。
3.这个有些牵强，楼主应该可以找到更好的理由/可能性。－>我想的是外界的因素和病人自己的非正常病因对试验可能会有影响。有些牵强吧。
4.这段总体感觉有点罗嗦－>是语言和机构都不清晰是吗，要分开段是不是会好些，写时只是埋着头敲了，是有些乱。

[ 本帖最后由 pinuo 于 2007-8-6 23:59 编辑 ]