Issue045 [Jet小组} 第三次作业 求砖猛拍

abzeroUID: 2308499

Argument 45  
The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search forfood by moving over ice from island to island during the course of ayear. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain theplants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year,for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deerto travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from localhunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reportscoincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea iceto melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations isthe result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migrationpatterns across the frozen sea."

1,认为作者将气候变暖和报告之间的偶然的同时发生当作了必然的因果关系
但是这一段我论证的很不好，自我感觉没有针对这个主题攻击，倒是扯了很多他因，恳求哪位大大牛能指点一下这样的错误应该如何写才能写的深入透彻？
2，作者错误的断定了鹿数量减少的原因是它们无法迁徙
这一段开头指出的 this argument is based on a false assumption是否用错了？
3，猎人的报告统计上不一定正确

一个大问题：我一开始是把主体段落的第二段作为第一个攻击的错误的，请问大牛们如何编排攻击错误的顺序？
总觉得这一段就是直接攻击了结论，似乎有点太大了

最后结尾的一段是否应该再提出再详细具体一点的改进建议？

还有第二段最后的Only if the ice was melted during the deer migrating season, it may block their age-old migration. 有没有什么更好的表达方式？


The conclusion of this editorial seems well-reasoned. By citing the reports from local hunters that the deer populations are declining, and pointing out at the same time, the global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt, the author of this editorial concludes that the decreasing of arctic deer populations lies in that these deer are unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. However, I find this conclusion logically unconvincing in several respects.

Firstly, the author unnecessarily takes a coincide relationship as causal. It is entirely possible that the coincidence between these reports about the decline of deer population and recent global warming trends is totally by accident. The author fails to give more detailed information about the situation. Maybe the temperature after increase by warming trends is still not high enough to melt the sea ice. In addition, the deer needs not to travel over the sea through the ice all over the year.  Only if the ice was melted during the deer migrating season, it may block their age-old migration.

Furthermore, this argument is based on a false assumption. The author asserts that deer populations have declined in that deer are unable to across the frozen sea, but it is probably not the case. There are many other possible reasons which may decrease the deer populations. For example, maybe the climate change, like global warming trends, result in the death of mass, which is the main food of arctic deer. So the deer populations decline because of the famine. Or perhaps the pollution caused by human activities has influence the Arctic Ocean and kills many of these deer. Unless the author provides more information to rule out these alternative explanations, I will not accept this assumption about the reason why the deer population declines.

Last but not the least, the reports from the local hunters maybe not totally correct. As mentioned in this editorial, arctic deer often migrate from one island to another, and this will surely bring great difficulties to account the total number of deer. Or perhaps the area where deer live are much larger than the ones where these local hunters can arrive, so many deer are not took in to accounts.
The author should provide us more evidence to prove that these reports are statistical reliable.

To sum up, this conclusion is unconvincing as it stands for its scant evidence and specious assumption. To strengthen this conclusion, the author needs to come up with much more detailed information about the arctic deer and more direct evidence about the relationship between the decline and the ice melting.

[ 本帖最后由 abzero 于 2008-2-5 20:17 编辑 ]

abzeroUID: 2308499

难道是我写得太烂或者问题太弱智了？

lucy_pandoraUID: 2364179

第一次拍砖，凑合看看吧~~

1,认为作者将气候变暖和报告之间的偶然的同时发生当作了必然的因果关系
但是这一段我论证的很不好，自我感觉没有针对这个主题攻击，倒是扯了很多他因，恳求哪位大大牛能指点一下这样的错误应该如何写才能写的深入透彻？

感觉这一段逻辑的确有一些混乱，个人觉得直接攻击“气候变暖不一定导致加拿大极地地区冰融，从而不一定影响鹿的觅食活动”更为容易

2，作者错误的断定了鹿数量减少的原因是它们无法迁徙
这一段开头指出的 this argument is based on a false assumption是否用错了？

总觉得'false'这个词有点奇怪，建议换成'unsubstantiated'。另外范文中有很多表达这个意思的句型，不妨采用。
如：
The argument hastily/unfairly assumes that...
The author makes certain dubious assumptions about...
The argument relies on the unsubstantiated assumption that...

3，猎人的报告统计上不一定正确

一个大问题：我一开始是把主体段落的第二段作为第一个攻击的错误的，请问大牛们如何编排攻击错误的顺序？
总觉得这一段就是直接攻击了结论，似乎有点太大了

个人更喜欢把argument本身的逻辑链整理出来，利用让步各个击破。


最后结尾的一段是否应该再提出再详细具体一点的改进建议？

时间足够的话最后一段还是可以更加丰满一点，不过个人认为最后一段不是关键，还是正文最为重要。

还有第二段最后的Only if the ice was melted during the deer migrating season, it may block their age-old migration. 有没有什么更好的表达方式？

瞎写了一句，见文中

The conclusion of this editorial seems well-reasoned. By citing the reports from local hunters that the deer populations are declining, and pointing out at the same time, the global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt, the author of this editorial concludes that the decreasing of arctic deer populations lies in that these deer are unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. However, I find this conclusion logically unconvincing in several respects.

Firstly, the author unnecessarily takes a coincide relationship as causal. It is entirely possible that the coincidence between these reports about the decline of deer population and recent global warming trends is totally by accident. The author fails to give more detailed information about the situation（condition更好一些吧）. Maybe the temperature after increase by warming trends（这里没看懂=,=） is still not high enough to melt the sea ice. In addition, the deer needs not to travel over the sea through the ice all over the year.  Only if the ice was melted during the deer migrating season, it may block their age-old migration.（In addition, the melt of the ice does not necessarily have any impact on arctic deer's migration. Only when these two accidents happen simultaneously might the food-searching activity be affected.）

Furthermore, this argument is based on a false assumption. The author asserts that deer populations have declined in that deer are unable to across the frozen sea, but it is probably not the case. There are many other possible reasons which may decrease the deer populations. For example, maybe the climate change, like global warming trends, result in the death of mass, which is the main food of arctic deer. So the deer populations decline because of the famine. Or perhaps the pollution caused by human activities has influence the Arctic Ocean and kills many of these deer. （这几个例子很赞啊~）Unless the author provides more information to rule out these alternative explanations, I will not accept this assumption about the reason why the deer population declines.

Last but not the least, the reports from the local hunters maybe（may be） not totally correct. As mentioned in this editorial, arctic deer often migrate from one island to another, and this will surely bring great difficulties to account（count） the total number of deer. Or perhaps the area where deer live are much larger than the ones where these local hunters can arrive, so many deer are not took in to accounts.
The author should provide us more evidence to prove that these reports are statistical reliable.

To sum up, this conclusion is unconvincing as it stands for its scant evidence and specious assumption. To strengthen this conclusion, the author needs to come up with much more detailed information about the arctic deer and more direct evidence about the relationship between the decline and the ice melting.

月亮熬的汤UID: 2382325

The conclusion of this editorial seems well-reasoned. By citing the reports from local hunters that the deer populations are declining, and pointing out at the same time, the global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt, the author of this editorial concludes that the decreasing of arctic deer populations lies in that these deer are unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. However, I find this conclusion logically unconvincing in several respects.

Firstly, the author unnecessarily takes a coincide relationship as causal. It is entirely possible that the coincidence between these reports about the decline of deer population and recent global warming trends is totally by accident. The author fails to give more detailed information about the situation. Maybe the temperature after increase by warming trends（我改成maybe the increase temperature caused by global warming trends） is still not high enough to melt the sea ice. In addition, the deer needs not to travel over the sea through the ice all over the year.  Only if the ice was melted during the deer migrating season, it may block their age-old migration.(这点很好，我倒是没想到)

Furthermore, this argument is based on a false assumption. The author asserts that deer populations have declined in that deer are unable to across the frozen sea, but it is probably not the case. There are many other possible reasons which may decrease the deer populations. For example, maybe the climate change, like global warming trends, result in the death of mass, which is the main food of arctic deer. So the deer populations decline because of the famine.（很具体我觉得很不错） Or perhaps the pollution caused by human activities has influence the Arctic Ocean and kills many of these deer. Unless the author provides more information to rule out these alternative explanations, I will not accept this assumption about the reason why the deer population declines.

Last but not the least, the reports from the local hunters maybe not totally correct. As mentioned in this editorial, arctic deer often migrate from one island to another, and this will surely bring great difficulties to account the total number of deer. Or perhaps the area where deer live are much larger than the ones where these local hunters can arrive, so many deer are not took in to accounts.The author should provide us more evidence to prove that these reports are statistical reliable.（感觉这段可以论述的更加充分）

To sum up, this conclusion is unconvincing as it stands for its scant evidence and specious assumption. To strengthen this conclusion, the author needs to come up with much more detailed information about the arctic deer and more direct evidence about the relationship between the decline and the ice melting.

小结：
1.我觉得三段驳斥段没有紧紧联系起来，这三段之间如果不是各自独立的段落而之间还有一定的逻辑关系我觉得会更好，推荐你看看JET小组组长的argument，他的驳斥段之间联系非常紧密
2.有些段落论述的不够充分，这样字数又少又显得没有力度
3.个人觉得每一段还是应该简短说一下原文的错误具体是什么，比如第四段你说the reports from the local hunters maybe not totally correct但是hunter是怎么说的没有提到，可以用很好的句式改写原文，字数又多又显得文章丰富，这点只是个人意见