【0806G-永不言弃小组】第八次作业提纲总帖

永不言弃小组UID: 2428687

提纲issue （政治类）70 167 +argument97+232

worldbabyUID: 2272889

97.The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK.
"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage.
（1）        wack station 增加了sports broadcasts， 这不一定会带来该地区audience的增加。首先，全国范围内的survey不能代表该地区的情况。其次，假定这个surbey能代表该地情况，这样调查仅考虑了男性观众的意见，而忽略了女性观众的看法，这样带来的调整可能会带来这部分观众的流失。再者，wack仅是考虑了对sports broadcast的调整，而忽略了其它可能导致doubled audience的原因，比如其它节目的增加，主持人的变动，节目的改良的原因。
（2）        假使wack的成功归因于sports broadcast的增加，也不能说明kick应该采纳同样的策略。首先，没有证据表明kick有必要增加sports broadcast。也许kick的体育节目已经饱和了，其次。地域不同，观众的性别比例和偏好不一样。不能照搬
（3）        即使增加sports broadcast的策略是对的，也不一定能increase company profits。因为profits的增加不仅和体育节目的收视率相关，还与该电视台的其它节目相关，更重要的是，这还与kick的广告收入相关。
--------------------------------------------------------
232.The following appeared in a memo from the sales manager of Eco-Power, a company that manufactures tools and home appliances.

"Many popular radio and television commercials use memorable tunes and song lyrics to call attention to the products being advertised. Indeed, a recent study of high school students showed that 85 percent could easily recognize the tunes used to advertise leading soft drinks and fast-food restaurants. Despite our company's extensive advertising in magazines during the past year, sales of our home appliances declined. Therefore, to boost company profits, we should now switch to advertisements featuring a distinctive song
（1）        对于advertisement with memorable tunes and song lyrics 的质疑。首先，仅是85% 高中学生能够recognize，并不能代表这广告在其它群体中的有效性。高中生听流行音乐的时间多于白领及老年人，所以这样的study不具有代表性，其次，即使能够辨别出这样的advertisment，也不能说明这样的广告是有效的，毕竟广告的效果体现在销售收入的增加，而高中生的购买力是有限的。
（2）        即使该广告是有效的，我们公司也不一定应该swith to advertisement featuring a distinctive song.首先，不能将decreasing sales of home appliances归因于杂志广告的效果，因为sales更多的是于产品质量，产品性能有关。二，因为产品不同，soft drinks and fast-food restaurants的目标消费者应该是年轻一族，而home appliances的目标群体更是成年的，有稳定收入的人，因此广告不一定需要disinctive song，体现出产品的稳定性能更为重要。
（3）        Boost company profits不应该完全依赖于advertisement， 提高产品再同行业中的质量应该放在首要地位。该公司的策略有问题。
---------------------------------------------------------
70. "In any profession—business, politics, education, government—those in power should step down after five years. The surest path to success for any enterprise is revitalization through new leadership."
在任何领域中——商业、政治、教育、政府——掌权者应该在五年后就让位。这是任何机构获得成的最好的方式：通过更新领导者而保持活力。
（1）revitalization是有必要的。New leadership带来了innovation，并且可以prevent abuse of authority and corruption。例子有一是many companies replace the sales-manager to expand the market share.Lenovo appoint Bill Amelio its CEO who once was vice-CEO of Dell.Many CEO of listed companies in China switch frequently for the ameliorating the management of corporation.而是, endogenetic problems including ossification of system which lead to low efficiency ,interest groups, and also self-centered corruption always appear after long-term domination .take the example of the economic defalcation and autocracy of Suharto‘s government。
(2)但是对于一些领域，经验的积累笔revitalization更为重要。以学术领域或是商业领域为例。USA的life job of Chief Justice of supreme court. And the chairman of the Federal Reserve board. 而且过频繁的更新领导人也会存在一些问题，比如追求短期的政绩而忽视了长期的根本利益。
（3）综合而言，这个五年的期限过于strict和unreasonable。期限的限制应该根据不同领域来设定，更应该根据不同的时期来设定。Roosevelt二战时连任了四届总统。
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
167. "It is impossible for an effective political leader to tell the truth all the time. Complete honesty is not a useful virtue for a politician."
（1）有时tell truth是不必要的。对于政治家的竞选，对于国家的利益。例子包括rosewell的ufo事件
（2）有时需要tell truth。一是防止腐败和丑闻。二是公开政务带来的收益大于probe corruption的支出（以中国的政务网的优点vs Watergate中资源的耗费
（3）指出的是，作为一个合格的政治家，他应该拥有这样的能力来demarcate两者。同时，民众关注的是政治家能否带来当地或是全国经济的发展，有时侯不具备这样的virtue也是可以忽略的。比如cliton的丑闻。但是其连任两届总统，而且在位其间美国的经济发展平稳。