Argument45 [老兵小组] 第1次作文

wggtterUID: 2371867

ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."


The argument above is not sufficient supported by the evidence given. Arriving at the conclusion that it is the global warming trends that results in the declining population of arctic deer is not valid based on the information above.

First of all, the author fails to convince us that the global warming trends that have caused the sea ice melt will definitely leads to dear population declining. From the information above, we know that there are two factors that influence arctic deer living condition. On the one hand, they need living areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed. On the other hand, their living areas should be cold enough for the ice cover the sea separating the islands, allowing dear to travel over it. Although the global warming trends harm the latter living condition and limit the traveling of deer, it provide a better condition that appropriate for the plant living and thus improve the deer's former living condition. So the arctic deer may even not need to travel between the islands to seek other place for living. This partial analysis renders the author's conclusion unconvincing.

Additionally, the author fails to rule out other alternative explanation for the decrease of deer population. It is entirely possible that it is the increasing number of hunting that responsible for the declining population. And maybe in these days, some other living conditions of arctic deer, such water, food, and climate, have obviously changed. The deer can not adopt these changes; and consequently there arise a large number of deaths. And maybe some bad conditions such as chemical pollution and air pollution that affect the multiplication of the arctic deer. And there are still many other reasons can count for this. Therefore, without ruling out these and other alternative explanations for the inclining of the deer, the author's conclusion is open to doubt.

In sum, to better support the author's conclusion, the author should provide more information about the deer's living condition. To further explain the why the deer population had inclined, the author should do more investigations to exclude other explanation that may weak author's conclusion.