ARGUMENT53 THRIVE小组第六次作业

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题目：ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
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In this argument, the author claims that the increased levels of melatonin cause shyness. To support this claim, the author site a study showing that 25 infants feel mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. The author also points that the melatonin affect some brain function; and the influence of melatonin will affect these infants until their teenagers. In several respects, the argument shows little credible evidences to support this argument.

First of all, the threshold problem is that the author provides little information to the thirteen years ago study, and whether the number of study is statistically sufficient. Perhaps the number of 25 infants is only a small amount in the overall baby who participate the study. Lacking evidences that the 25 infants is representative of overall, the author can not expect us to take seriously the author's claim

Second, the author assumes that the melatonin caused the babies to feel shyness. However, there is no evidence that the former attribute to the latter. And there is no scientific statistics and information to explain the effect of the melatonin and to prove that the melatonin have an effect on the baby. Further more the author cannot provide information that whether the melatonin can affect the mother or not. Without supplying abovementioned information and evidences, the author cannot fairly conclude that the melatonin can make shy the baby.

Finally, even assuming that the melatonin can affect the baby, the author commit a "false dilemma" fallacy by imposing an either-or choice on the assumption that only if the melatonin increased in birth ,then shyness will continue into later life. The author unfairly neglects other factors contributing to the shyness. It is high possibility that the baby's parents and the people who lived together with them have a more important influence on the development of baby. Perhaps the parents of baby seldom talked with the baby while he was increasingly growing up. Therefore when communicating other people, as a result of lacking social skills, the baby feels shyness. In short, without ruling out these and other factors, the author cannot justly conclude that the melatonin will also affect the baby until they become teenagers.

In sum, the author failed to validate that the study is able to be representative of all baby. And to substantiate his conclusion ,the author need to offer other more sufficient information and evidences to confirm that the melatonin will affect the baby and will also have a influence of making him sky until his teenager.