ARGUMENT38【Aero小组】第14次作业

liruixinsnakeUID: 2373729

题目：ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
字数：406          用时：00:30:00          日期：2008-2-17 13:56:57

In this argument, citing the facts in the nearby area where fish consumption is very high and people there visit the doctor only once or twice per year because of colds, adding the fact that colds are always the reason of absenteeism from school and work, the author recommends that people in West Meria(W) should take Ichthaid every day to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. While the argument seems somewhat convincing, a careful examination of this analysis reveals that it suffers at least three critical flaws.

Firstly, the author fails to convince me that the low rate of getting cold in East Meria(E) is resulting from the high consumption of fish. There may be other factors, which will lead to this truth. For example, the people in E may love to exercise every day and recently there are many new gyms, which are free to the public. By taking more sports, people's health are better and better, while, at the same time, people there like to eat fish very much and the price of fish there is very low. Thus, without ruling all these possible scenarios, the author cannot assume there be the causal relationship between these two distinct facts.

Secondly, even assuming that there is some relation between eating fish and the prevention of getting colds, we can not be persuaded that the daily use of Ichthaid will help us get rid of colds in that the author does not tell us how the fish oil be made and in which place the fish are used in produce this fish oil. Whether there is any side-affect after taking this nutritional supplement? Because the author provides no evidence to illustrate these unknown things, we cannot reach the author's conclusion of taking the fish oil.

Thirdly, the author cites the fact that most of the absenteeism is due to cold, which may not be the truth. It is entirely possible that people do not want to explain the exact reasons to their employers and take colds as an excuse for their leave. In this possibility, the connection between colds and absenteeism is open to doubt.

To sum up, this argument lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis cannot lend strong support to what the author recommends. Unless the author provide more statistical evidence that the fish oil will prevent colds and the people's absenteeism does mostly ascribe to colds, then his concerning about these issues can be grounded.

[ 本帖最后由 liruixinsnake 于 2008-2-17 15:25 编辑 ]

barretshaoUID: 2449682

ARGUMENT38【Aero小组】第14次作业

题目：ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
字数：406      用时：00:30:00      日期：2008-2-17 13:56:57

In this argument, citing the facts in the nearby area where fish consumption is very high and people there visit the doctor only once or twice per year because of colds, adding the fact that colds are always the reason of absenteeism from school and work, the author recommends that people in West Meria(W) should take Ichthaid every day to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. While the argument seems somewhat convincing, a careful examination of this analysis reveals that it suffers at least three critical flaws.

Firstly, the author fails to convince me that the low rate of getting cold in East Meria(E) is resulting from the high consumption of fish. There may be other factors, which will lead to this truth. For example, the people in E may love to exercise every day and recently there are many new gyms, which are free to the public. By taking more sports, people's health are better and better, while, at the same time, people there like to eat fish very much and the price of fish there is very low. Thus, without ruling （out）all these possible scenarios, the author cannot assume there be the causal relationship between these two distinct facts.

Secondly, even assuming that there is（are） some relations between eating fish and the prevention of getting colds, we can not be persuaded that the daily use of Ichthaid will help us get rid of colds in that the author does not tell us how the fish oil be made and in which place the fish are used in produce this fish oil. Whether there is any side-affect after taking this nutritional supplement? Because the author provides no evidence to illustrate these unknown things, we cannot reach the author's conclusion of taking the fish oil.

Thirdly, the author cites the fact that most of the absenteeism is(are) due to cold, which may not be the truth. It is entirely possible that people do not want to explain the exact reasons to their employers and take colds as an excuse for their leave. In this possibility, the connection between colds and absenteeism is open to doubt.

To sum up, this argument lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis cannot lend strong support to what the author recommends. Unless the author provide more statistical evidence that the fish oil will prevent colds and the people's absenteeism does mostly ascribe to colds, then his concerning about these issues can be grounded.
（我觉得为什么不说下West 和East的差别呢？？这点应该挺重要的逻辑错误。。）
整篇的逻辑主线都挺清楚的。除了一些细小的错误

beetle1986UID: 2431214

In this argument, (by) citing the facts in the nearby area where fish consumption is very high and people there visit the doctor only once or twice per year because of colds, (and) adding the fact that colds are always the reason of absenteeism from school and work, the author recommends that people in West Meria(W) should take Ichthaid every day to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. While the argument seems somewhat convincing, a careful examination of this analysis reveals that it suffers at least three critical flaws.Firstly, the author fails to convince me that the low rate of getting cold in East Meria(E) is resulting (resulted) from the high consumption of fish. There may be other factors, which will lead to this truth. For example, the people in E may love to exercise every day and recently there are many new gyms, which are free to the public. By taking more sports, people's health are better and better, while, at the same time, people there like to eat fish very much and the price of fish there is very low. Thus, without (without改until) ruling (out) all these possible scenarios, the author cannot assume there is the causal relationship between these two distinct facts.个人以为，这一段的攻击点有，一是一年看一两次医生，但小感冒可能不看医生，所以E城的人生病可能不止一两次。二是W城的人平均每年得几次感冒作者没有说，可能W城的人更少。而且W城有多少人因为感冒缺勤也没有说。
Secondly, even assuming that there is some relation between eating fish and the prevention of getting colds, we cannot be persuaded that the daily use of Ichthaid will help us get rid of colds in that the author does not tell us how the fish oil be made and in which place the fish are used in produce this fish oil. Whether there is any side-affect (side-effect) after taking this nutritional supplement? Because the author provides no evidence to illustrate these unknown things, we cannot reach the author's conclusion of taking the fish oil.这个看起来比较乱。平时写提纲的时候可以写详细一些，看起来也更有条理，逻辑更清晰。Thirdly, the author cites the fact that most of the absenteeism is due to cold, which may not be the truth. It is entirely possible that people do not want to explain the exact reasons to their employers and take colds as an excuse for their leave. In this possibility, the connection between colds and absenteeism is open to doubt. To sum up, this argument lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis cannot lend strong support to what the author recommends. Unless the author provide more statistical evidence that the fish oil will prevent colds and the people's absenteeism does mostly ascribe to colds, then his concerning about these issues can be grounded.

你的第三个攻击段已经说了，就算不感冒也有可能以感冒为借口缺勤，所以最后建议段还应要求论者提供这种做法可以减少缺勤律的证据。

can715715UID: 2460724

:handshake

dahuadebaobaoUID: 2441571

题目：ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council. "An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."字数：406          用时：00:30:00          日期：2008-2-17 13:56:57In this argument, citing the facts in the nearby area where fish consumption is very high and people there visit the doctor only once or twice per year because of colds, adding the fact（这里感冒是缺席的原因不是事实而是作者自己的猜测哦，用Assumption可能好一些）that colds are always the reason of absenteeism from school and work, the author recommends that people in West Meria(W) should take Ichthaid every day to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. While the argument seems somewhat convincing, a careful examination of this analysis reveals that it suffers at least three critical flaws.Firstly, the author fails to convince me that the low rate of getting cold in East Meria(E) is resulting from the high consumption of fish. There may be other factors, which will lead to this truth. For example, the people in E may love to exercise every day and recently there are many new gyms, which are free to the public. By taking more sports, people's health are better and better, while, at the same time, people there like to eat fish very much and the price of fish there is very low. Thus, without ruling

（ruling out ） all these possible scenarios, the author cannot assume there be the causal relationship between these two distinct facts.Secondly, even assuming that there is some relation between eating fish and the prevention of getting colds, we can not be persuaded that the daily use of Ichthaid will help us get rid of colds in that the author does not tell us how the fish oil be made and in which place the fish are used in produce this fish oil. Whether there is any side-affect after taking this nutritional supplement? Because the author provides no evidence to illustrate these unknown things, we cannot reach the author's conclusion of taking the fish oil.Thirdly, the author cites the fact that most of the absenteeism is due to cold, which may not be the truth. It is entirely possible that people do not want to explain the exact reasons to their employers and take colds as an excuse for their leave. In this possibility, the connection between colds and absenteeism is open to doubt.

(第二三段感觉应该倒过来，因为如果三不成立－人们不是因为感冒而请假，

不论吃什么东西都不管用，而三成立了才有二）

sum up, this argument lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis cannot lend strong support to what the author recommends. Unless the author provide more statistical evidence that the fish oil will prevent colds and the people's absenteeism does mostly ascribe to colds, then his concerning about these issues can be grounded.

俺的argu https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=802252&extra=page%3D1 也请给俺批批哦：）