ARGUMENT38 by zephyrqq

zephyrqqUID: 2260290

ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
字数：442    718      用时：00:45:00   修改50分钟       日期：2008-2-18 18:30:53

1.不能证明吃鱼能预防感冒 (人均每天吃鱼不一定多，看医生少不代表感冒少，气候风俗饮食习惯都影响感冒发病率）
2.即使吃鱼预防感冒，也不意味着每天服用Ichthaid是值得推荐的（I不含有鱼的全部成分，I可能有副作用）
3.给出的缺席原因可能只是借口，不是真正原因。拖过这样，即使I可以安全放感冒，也不能减少缺席。


Before taking the author's advice to employ the so-called innovate treatment to reduce the rate of absence in schools and workplaces, it is necessary for us to make a meticulous scrutiny of the evidences cited in this argument again, for the reason that some logic fallacies prevent us from accepting the author's suggestion.

To begin with, the study in East Meria is too problematic to convince us that eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. First, the high fish consumptions could not be considered as an indicator of the high daily fish consumption for everyone. Perhaps the population in this city is relatively large, the average amount of fish eat by every person is actually very little. Second, the mere fact that people visit doctor only once or two per year for colds does not equals to the fact that them seldom catch a cold. It is possible that they does not go to see a doctor every time they have a cold. They only visit a doctor for the treatment of some severe colds, while treat slight colds by taking some medicine quite independent of doctors. If this is the case, there is possibility that every year the times they catch a cold are more than two, or even as many as more than ten. Third, even if the residents all consume a considerable amount of fish and they do seldom catch a cold. The author still does not rule out other factors other than eating fish that might be responsible for few colds. Perhaps the climate in this area is warm all the year around, or there are other local customs or healthy eating habits which contribute to the low rate of colds.  Any of these scenarios, if true, could undermine the author’s conclusion that consuming a certain amount of fish can prevent colds.  

Furthermore, even assuming that eating proper amount of fish can really prevent people in East Meria from catching cold, it does not necessarily mean that the daily use of Ichthaid can be advisable. At first, since Ichthaid is nothing but a substance derived from fish oil, it does not include all the things that a fish possess. If the active elements in fish that can inhibit a cold does not lie in the fish oil, or if these elements does exist in fish oil but they have been completely lost in the procedure of deriving, Ichthaid does not contain these useful elements at all, let alone prevent the happen of colds. Moreover, we are not certain a bout the side effects of Ichthaid and whether it is fitted to all the people or not. Perhaps Ichthaid contains something which can enhance the risk of hypertension. Or perhaps some integrant in Ichthaid could produce adverse impact which can prevent the growing of children. The point is that without evidence showing that Ichthaid is effective for preventing colds and is absolutely safe for all the people to take in, it is clearly inappropriate to recommend the daily use of it.

Another problem in volves that the author simply assumes that colds,  which are the most frequent reason given for absence, are exactly the real reason. Common sense tells us that people sometimes tend to make up excuses for their absence. For example, it is convenient for a student, who would like to have a rest at home instead of doing to school, to ask for a leave by telling his teacher on telephone that he have caught a cold, no matter it is true or not. It is quite understandable that we could not view the given reason as the actual cause on most occasions. In the light of this statement although colds are the common given reason for absenteeism, the real reason might be others, like lazy, tire and the sense of boring caused by working or study. If this is exactly the case, even if we presume that the daily use of Ichthaid can prevent cold successfully and safely, it might still not help to reduce absenteeism.

For all these reasons, this argument is unsubstantial as it stands. To better support it, the aouthor should make sure that colds are the real reason for absence, and the daily use of Ichthaind can prevent cold effectively without exerting other unfavorable effects on the health of human being.


[ 本帖最后由 zephyrqq 于 2008-3-6 19:24 编辑 ]

zephyrqqUID: 2260290

Before taking the author's advice to employ the so-called innovate treatment to reduce the rate of absence in schools and workplaces [and prevent colds], it is necessary for us to make a meticulous scrutiny of the evidences cited in this argument again, for the reason that some logic fallacies might prevent [stop] us from accepting the author's suggestion.

To begin with, the study in East Meria is too problematic to convince us that eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. First, the high fish consumptions could not be considered as an indicator of the high daily fish consumption for everyone [per person]. Perhaps the population in this city is relatively large, and the average amount of fish eaten by every person is actually very little. Second, the mere fact that people visit doctor only once or two per year for colds does not equals to the fact that them seldom catch a cold. It is possible that they does not go to see a doctor every time they have a cold. They only visit a doctor for the treatment of some severe colds, while treat slight colds by taking some medicine quite independent of doctors. If this is the case, there is possibility that every year the times they catch a cold are more than two, or even as many as more than ten.[ten or more.  Third, even if the residents all consume a considerable amount of fish and they do seldom catch a cold, the author still does not rule out other [several] factors other than eating fish that might be responsible for few colds. Perhaps the climate in this area is warm all the year around, or there are other local customs or healthy eating habits which contribute to the low rate of colds.  Any of these scenarios, if true, could undermine the author’s conclusion that consuming a certain amount of fish can prevent colds.  

Furthermore, even assuming that eating proper amount of fish can really prevent people in East Meria from catching colds, it does not necessarily mean that the daily use of Ichthaid can be advisable. At first, since Ichthaid is nothing but a substance derived from fish oil, it does not include all the things that a fish possess. If the active elements in fish that can inhibit a cold does not lie in the fish oil, or if these elements[ingredients] does exist in fish oil but they have been completely lost in the procedure of deriving, Ichthaid does not contain these useful elements at all, let alone prevent the happen of colds. Moreover, we are not certain a bout the [ if there are some unkown] side effects of Ichthaid and whether it is fitted to all the people or not. Perhaps Ichthaid contains something which can enhance the risk of hypertension. Or perhaps some integrant in Ichthaid could produce adverse impact which can prevent the growing of children. The point is that without evidence showing that Ichthaid is effective for preventing colds and is absolutely safe for all the people to take in, it is clearly inappropriate to recommend the daily use of it.

Another problem involves that the author simply assumes that colds,  which are the most frequent reason given for absence, are exactly the real reason. Common sense tells us that people sometimes tend to make up excuses for their absence. For example, it is convenient for a student, who would like to have a rest at home instead of doing [going] to school, to ask for a leave by telling his teacher on [the] telephone that he have caught a cold, no matter it [the cold] is true or not. It is quite understandable that we could not view the given reason as the actual cause on most occasions. In the light of this statement, although colds are the common given reason for absenteeism, the real reason might be others, like lazy, tire and the sense of boring caused by working or study. If this is exactly the case, even if we presume that the daily use of Ichthaid can prevent cold successfully and safely, it might去掉 still cannot help to reduce absenteeism.

For all these reasons, this argument is unsubstantial as it stands. To better support it, the aouthor should make sure that colds are the real reason for absence, and the daily use of Ichthaind can prevent cold effectively without exerting other unfavorable effects on the health of human being. Nevertheless, the author fails to do these.