ARGUMENT53 by zephyrqq

zephyrqqUID: 2260290

ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

字数：441  577     用时：00:45:00  加17分钟        日期：2008-2-19 20:17:41

提纲：
1.没有证据表明这25个婴儿在出生前melatonin升高了，母亲怀孕时间未知，而且melatonin可能只停留在母体
2.婴儿期对不熟悉刺激的紧张不一定是害羞，可能是害怕
3.即使他们婴儿期害羞，无法证明这种害羞延续到了10多岁，自认为不等于实际，导致害羞的其他原因很多
4.就算研究结果和结论符合，样本太小，研究结果不可靠

The author cited the thirteen year's study to support the conclusion that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy as well as later life. However, this argument commits some logical fallacies, and therefore the author's conclusion is open to doubt.

First of all, there are no sufficient evidence to show that this group of infants involved in the study thirteen years ago had a higher level of melatonin, comparing to common ones. Although the researchers discovered these infants were more likely to have been conceived in early autumn, there is still possibility that these babies actually be conceived in other seasons. If a considerable part of them were conceived in early spring, their mothers' production of melatonin would decrease in response to increased daylight. Moreover, even if all of the babies are conceived in exactly the time as the researchers expected, there is no information tells us that the melatonin produced by their mother could transport into the blood of these babies, What if this kind of hormone would stay in the blood of mothers and would never  go into the infants? If this was the case, the levels of melatonin in these infants before birth remain as low as others.

Furthermore, the author also fails to convince us that this 25 infants were shy. Common sense tells us that unfamiliar stimulate would arouse a sense of uncertain or unsafe within some adults, let alone little infants. In the light of this statement, the signs of distress of these infants might not be indicators of shyness but expresses of fear. Thus, even assuming that this 25 infants involved in the study had a higher level of melatonin before birth,  we cannot accept the author's assertion that they are shy during infancy.

Another problem is that we do not know if the shyness--assume it does exist during these children's infancy--would continue for the presumed high levels of melatonin. First, the author unfairly equals what people identify themselves as something true. It is possible that those who think themselves shy are not shy at all, this shyness is nothing but a false feeling. Given that these children are virtually shy, the author overlook the reason why others, who also included in this study, do not identified themselves as shame. Even if we accept that these children were shy during their infancy, all of these foregoing fallacies of this study undermine the author's conclusion that this shyness would continue into later life. In addition, the author also fails to take other factors, which might lead to shyness, into account, these factors include genetic factors, environmental influence, culture backgrounds, particular personal experience and so forth. Without ruling out all these possibilities, we cannot believe that the shyness has something to do with melatonin.

Finally, even assuming that the statuses of these infants all in accordance with the author’s conclusion perfectly, 25 samples are too little to be reliable. We have sound reason to doubt whether these 25 cases could be representative enough to make sense.

In sum, this argument is unsubstantial as it stands. To better support it, the author should make sure that the melatonin of this 25 babies was really increased before their birth. Some other information about whether they are actually more shy than normal ones, if other factors might contribute to shyness are the same, will also be helpful. In order to draw a more scientific conclusion, relevant further studies are necessary.

[ 本帖最后由 zephyrqq 于 2008-3-6 19:27 编辑 ]