Argument45 Thrive小组第5次作业 求拍！

vic_rainUID: 2304309

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 377          TIME: 00:37:36          DATE: 2008-2-23 下午 09:26:14

By citing reports from local hunters and giving some facts and analysis, the editor concludes that arctic deer populations are declining and this decline is the result of unable to get the frozen sea across. Although this argument seems well presented on the surface, close scrutiny on it reveals several flaws, which renders it not well reasoned thus unconvincing.

First, whether these reports from local hunters are statistically reliable is open to doubt. What if we consider how abroad these hunters were? We have known nothing about the regions of the hunters involved. Most deer might just be away from the places where these hunters located for feeding, avoiding hunting, or any other reasons. In addition, it is also quite possible that these hunters lied to public for the purpose of preventing potential competition from newer hunters. For that matter, these reports' result is highly questionable, and therefore the prediction that deer populations are declining is unjustified.

Second, recent global warming trends do not necessarily indicate that deer cannot get the frozen sea across they used to any more. As the author supply no evidence that global warming trends have indeed caused the sea ice to melt and islands on which arctic deer live have been separated by the melted sea ice as a result, this is not necessarily the case. Perhaps the temperature in Canada's arctic region is not high enough to melt sea ice, or there are still some unmelted sea ice left allowing the deer to travel over it at least. Any of these scenarios, if true, would cast sociderable doubt on the author's conclusion.

Finally, granted that the deer population are declining and the route for deer across the frozen sea, the author fails to consider any other alternative explanations. These possibilities include the facts, such as over-hunting, certain fatal illness, and so forth, rather than across the frozen sea, are responsible for decrease in deer's population. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author's conclusion is dubious at best.

In sum, this argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster it the author must provide evidence that the deer population are indeed declining and temperature in Canada's arctic region is so high that most sea ice collecting islands have melted. To better evaluate this argument, we need more information about the hunting range and scale in the region and other incidences occurring to threaten deer' lives.

[ 本帖最后由 vic_rain 于 2008-2-23 22:25 编辑 ]