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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind videogames have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 478 TIME: 00:00:00 DATE: 2008-3-12 10:48:32
Based on a recent survey of video-game players, the editorial in a business magazine predicts that the sales of whirlwind video games which have declined since two years ago is about to be reserved. To bolster this prediction, the editorial cites that Whirlwind has just introduced several video games with popular demand, also along with an extensive advertising campaign. After careful examination of this supporting evidence, however, I reveal that it lends incredible advocate to the editorial’s claim.
First of all, the editorial provides no information about the numbers of respondents or other profiles. The fewer respondents, the less reliable of the survey results(the survey results). Also, the narrower the spectrum of the age and occupation and geographic area represented among respondents, the more likely that the results of the survey is misleading. Unless the respondents of survey are representative of overall population of video-game amateur, the editorial cannot rely on it to analysis the sales trend of Whirlwind new products.
Even assuming that the result of the surveys (插入is)statistically reliable, the editorial overlooks the requirement of games for computer so that such new games might not be welcomed. Perhaps such vivid graphic video games which require up-to -date computer request higher hardware and software, however, game amateurs cannot play these games because of poor function of their computer. Moreover, the results a wide-spreading advertising campaign directed at people those who are ten to twenty years old and are mostly likely fond of playing games might not be so successful because most of these young people which are raised by their parents are entirely possible students so that they cannot afford high cost for the up-to-date computer. Without considering and eliminating this and other possible alternative factors that might influence the sales trend, the editorial cannot convincingly conclude such results.
Even if computers of these game amateurs can fit the requirement of such video games, the sales trend might still not be upwards. The editorial provides not any explanations the reason for the decline of the games sales which has lasted for two years. Without explaining such reasons, it is equally possible that other factors might influence the sales trend. Perhaps prices of video games enacted by Whirlwind are too high for most game players to afford. Or perhaps that poor service for consumers brings about possibility that game players lose interested in games of Whirlwind.
In sum, the editorial fails to substantiate his claim that new games introduced by Whirlwind will reserve the sales decline for the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the editorial claims. To convince me that the survey of games features is reliable and responsible, the editorial must offer detailed profiles about respondents. To better evaluate the analysis, some reasons about the decline of sales trend should be supplied to assert that these new games can be effective on eliminating the sales decline.
评论:
个人认为,分析透彻有力,没有发现什么明显的不足。(注意一下拼写,基本可以上考场了,呵呵) |
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