Argument45[persistence小组] 第n+1次全文作业

graceliwjUID: 2443247

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

WORDS: 410          TIME: 00:35:00          DATE: 2001-4-6 15:53:04

Citing the result of a report from local hunters, the arguer claims that the reason of the decline of the deer populations in Canada'S arctic region is due to the recent global warming trends which have caused the sea ice to melt. However, careful examination indicates that there are several critical flaws in this argument.

In the second place, the arguer provides no direct evidence to support that the deer populations in Canada's arctic region are decling. The arguer fails to demonstrate that whether the sample of the reports is representative of the overall population. Perhaps some other hunters who hunted deers did not refer their reports. In addition, the arguer fails to rule out other possiblities which might affect the reliability of the reports. It is entirely possible that hunters have the wrong time to hunt during which deers could not come out. It is also possible that hunters went to the wrong places in which there are few deers. As a result, all of those possibilities make this statement unconvincing. The less evidence the arguer provides, the less reliable this conclusion is.

Granted that the deer populations in Canada's arctic region are declining, it is unfairly to generalize that which is caused by recent global warming trends. My point lies in three aspects. Firstly, the arguer offers no evidence to support that the recent global warming trends influence the temperature in Canada's arctic region. Without this survey and evidence, it is entirely possible that the global warming trends do not cause the temperature of Canada's arctic region to raise. Secondly, even if the temperature of there is risen by the global warming trends, is it enough to cause to sea ice to melt? Perhaps that the temperature of there raises by only a little which is not enough to cause the ice to melt. Finally, even though the global warming trends causes the sea ice to melt, it is hasty to conclude tht the deline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unalbe to follow their age-old migration patterns. The arguer fails to provide evidence to demonstrate that the migration patterns of deers indeed have a change. Without ruling out the possilities above, this argument can not convince me.

In short, to strengthen this argument, the arguer should ensure that whether the deer populations are declining. In addition, the arguer should survey that whether the global warming trends is the result of deer populations' decline.