argument 【7\8\9\10】 7.22(第二次作业) by buctcontrol

buctcontrolUID: 2392206

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 350         
By providing the premise that the number of deer population is decreased and the recent global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt, the claim that deer population will be declined seems logical. However, careful scrutiny of the argument reveals a series of dubious assumptions, which render it quite unconvincing.
First of all, the author claimed that there is report from local hunters that the deer population are declining. But we can not find any evidence show that if these hunters has did a procise survey. Meanwhile the timing and the area they did the survey are obviously will influence the conclusion. It is highly possible that the deer will hide from the hunters. Without ruling out these possible scenarios, we can not claim that the deer number is declined.
In addition, the author attempts to establish a causal relationship between two matters the recent global warming trends and the declining of the deer number.The fact that the global has a warming trend does not necessarily prove that the deer number is decreasing. Actually, the global warming does not mean that this island that the deer living will have a temperature increasing as well. Even if the temperature is rising, if it is not high enough to melt the ice ,it won't inflence their age-old migration.These deers can still leave their former lifes.
Last but not least, their is no evidence proved that even if the environment is changing and the deer can not follow the migration, their population will decline.Their are several factors may cause deer number decline.For instance,  environmental pollution, excessive and discriminate hunting or their sickness etc. So the speaker fails to manifest it is the lifeway change lead to the declining population.
In sum, the speakerneither present much evidence about the global warming has any relationship with the deer population nor have a precise survey about the deer number. To better evaluate the arguer's conclusion, we need more information regarding the hunter's survey of the deer number, particularly, the evidence to prove that the recent global warming trends will surely decline the deer population.

野猪大改造UID: 2484392

总体来说写得很不错。
逻辑漏洞和语言都不错，在我看来可能字数再多点就更不错了！