argument45 【7\8\9\10】第二次作业 这次字数很少会不会不够呢？

1001storyUID: 2516918

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 521               
The argument presented above is relatively sound, however, it is not thoroughly well-reasoned and fails to consider the necessary elements required to evaluate his situation. The notion that the declination of arctic deer in Canada's arctic area is due to the globe warming trends may depend on a series of speculations. The arguer also states that the trends would damage the age-old migration patterns, leading the reducion of the number of arctic deer. This argument may be based on faulty reasoning and unconvincing as the lack of complete evidence to support its conclusion.
  
  First, the author makes an outright conclusion that the population of deer shriks gradually from the reports of local hunters without providing any evidence whatsoever to support that conclusion. The reports carried out by authority, in our common sense, may be more convincing than surveied among the laymen such as native hunters. Moreover, work and family habits of these hunters may have encouraged them to hunt during this time when arctic deer do not go outside to forage and do the daily activities. This is a possible reason to answer why the hunter can not find arctic deer in their working time. If these factors could not be excluded comprehensively, we will not justifiably conclude this assertion by applying the unwarrantable reports in the argument.
    Secondly, assuming that the trends of the globe warming essentially indicates the increase of the tempreture in this region especially during the most cold time for a year, there is no evidence that the level of temperture in Canada' arctic region enhances with the globe change. Because of the world trends depending on the average of every place in the world , it is possible that some regions may grow a lot during recent years, others may not change and still others may decline at the same time. So if the arguer do not provided the concrete evidence in Canada's region to prove such trends really existing, who can ensure that the warming trends have already invaded in this place?
  Even though the arguer can establish the relationship between the globe trends and the warming trends in these arctic islands, we could not concludes that the warming factor is the cause of the population reduction. The argument may observe a correlation between them, but it fails to rule out other possible explanations for the declination. For example, the over hunting may become an effective reason for this declining of arctic deer. It is possible that the plants, the staple of arctic deer,  may endangered now caused by some nature disasters. Any one of these factors may lead to the population reduction of deer in this region. Without rulling out these scenarios, the arguer could not achieve the cause-and-effect relationship between the temperture trends with this declination upon which the author's conclusion relies.
  
To sum up, the arguer fails to strengthen the validity of the reports, because the evidence cited in the argument does not lend sufficient supports to what the author maintains. Therefore if the author have included the given factors mentioned above, the argument would have been more thoroughly and logically accepted.
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