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发表于 2008-7-23 18:35:39
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TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
According to the editorial in a wildlife journal, the writer claims that the reason of decline in arctic deer populations is because deer are unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. Although the editorial seems to present well, under close scrutiny, I find the conclusion is flawed in several aspects.
First, the premise of writer's conclusion is partly based on the hunters’ reports that the deer populations are declining. However, sufficient evidence is lacking for verifying authenticity of the reports. It is possible that hunters hastily made the conclusion only because they hardly hunted any deer or seldom saw deer recently where they normally hunted a lot before. Perhaps the deer population is not declining at all. Without precise reports, writer's conclusion seems like unconvincing.
Second, even assuming that deer population declined, the writer is failing to consider other reason that may cause the decline. For example, now that people are allowed to hunt there, over-hunting may badly influence the number of deer in that region. Furthermore, humans' activities in deer's habitant may destroy their living condition. Deforestation may lead to food scarcity, constructions on islands may diminish moving space. All these can influence deer population. Not ruling out such possibilities as I presented above, it is cursory for the writing to make the conclusion.
Finally, although global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt recently in some place, the writer fails to provide us with adequate evidence that temperature in regions where arctic deer live is also rising. It is possible that climate there is not changing which means it is still cold enough for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands. Before the writer offering us information of climate in the regions, the conclusion remains illogical.
In sum, the writer's conclusion is incredible. Before making such a conclusion, the writer should convince the authenticity of the reports from hunters, rule out other possibilities which influenced deer population if it is true, and make sure that the temperature in the regions where arctic deer live is rising.
[ 本帖最后由 Demiquaver 于 2008-7-23 22:50 编辑 ] |
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