argument53 【7\8\9\10】 7.23(第三次作业) by buctcontrol

buctcontrolUID: 2392206

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

By providing the study with the following survey of 25 infants that those infants were shyness after they were brought up due to the melatonin which was product by their mother, the conclusion for increased level of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy seems logical. However, careful scrutiny of the argument reveals a series of dubious assumptions, which render it quite unconvincing.

First of all, the author cites a study to show the shyness of infant is correlated to the melatonin. However, the validity of the study is doubtful. As it has been mentioned in the argument, only 25 infants showed distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. This sample number is so small that we can hardly draw any conclusion from it. Perhaps there are thousands of infants who would be distressed when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli, but only these 25 infants are selected to take the study. And thus, without given more evidence to show whether these 25 infants can represent the overall group of infants who showed mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli, the study’s credibility is dubious. Let alone to convince us these infants are more likely than others to have been conceived in early autumn.

Secondly, even assuming the study is reliable, the argument remains unpersuasive for it unfairly assumes the shyness of infants is related to the melatonin increasing of their mothers. In fact, the fact that the melatonin increasing coincide with the shyness of infants doesn’t necessarily prove that the melatonin causes the shyness. Perhaps other hormones of their mothers contribute to their shyness. Or perhaps it is their genes that result in their shyness. In short, without ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot convince us the melatonin causes the shyness of infants.

Finally, the author falsely depends on the gratuitous assumption that the mere fact that more than half of the children-now teenagers who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy would prove the shyness continues. However, it is not necessarily the case. It is entirely possible that the shyness of those teenagers is caused by an accident happened in their childhood. Or perhaps it is their family circumstance, rather than the melatonin, causes their shyness. Therefore, we cannot hastily draw the conclusion that the shyness of the infants would last to their later life.

In sum, the argument is unpersuasive. To strengthen it, the author must provide more convincing evidence to show the validity of the study he or she cites. To better assess it, we would need to know that whether the melatonin is the real cause of the shyness of infants, we would also need to know that whether the shyness can really continues into their later life.

atreusUID: 2471951

By providing the study with the following survey of 25 infants that those infants were shyness after they were brought up due to the melatonin which was product by their mother, the conclusion for increased level of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy seems logical. However, careful scrutiny of the argument reveals a series of dubious assumptions, which render it quite unconvincing.
First of all, the author cites a study to show the shyness of infant is correlated to the melatonin. However, the validity of the study is doubtful. As it has been mentioned in the argument, only 25 infants showed distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. This sample number is so small that we can hardly draw any【加一个修饰成分reliable】 conclusion from it. Perhaps there are thousands of infants who would be distressed when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli, but only these 25 infants are selected to take the study. And thus, without given more evidence to show whether these 25 infants can represent the overall group of infants who showed mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli, the study’s credibility is dubious. Let alone to convince us these infants are more likely than others to have been conceived in early autumn. [此句有点多余，可以考虑去掉]
Secondly, even assuming the study is reliable, the argument remains unpersuasive for it unfairly assumes the shyness of infants is related to the melatonin increasing of their mothers. In fact, the fact that the melatonin increasing coincide with the shyness of infants doesn’t necessarily prove that the melatonin causes the shyness. Perhaps other hormones of their mothers contribute to their shyness. Or perhaps it is their genes that result in their shyness. In short, without ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot convince us the melatonin causes the shyness of infants.
Finally, the author falsely depends on the gratuitous assumption that the mere fact that more than half of the children-now teenagers who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy would prove the shyness continues. However, it is not necessarily the case. It is entirely possible that the shyness of those teenagers is caused by an accident happened in their childhood. Or perhaps it is their family circumstance, rather than the melatonin, causes their shyness. Therefore, we cannot hastily draw the conclusion that the shyness of the infants would last to their later life.
In sum, the argument is unpersuasive. To strengthen it, the author must provide more convincing evidence to show the validity of the study he or she cites. To better assess it, we would need to know that whether the melatonin is the real cause of the shyness of infants, we would also need to know that whether the shyness can really continues into their later life.
【逻辑顺序很棒，值得学习】