argumengt35 【7\8\910】第五次作业

lisheng19881108UID: 2358622

ag35   15点27--15点53 超5分钟

The argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. The arguer makes the conclusion that, with the new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average of Mentia. At first glance, the author's reasoning seems to be appealing, while clearly examining the author's reasoning, we may find that it is unconvincing. The argument contains several facts that are questionable.

In the first place, the argument is based on a false reasoning. The arguer unfairly assumes that salicylates and aspirin all can heel headaches, but he does not offer any evidence that they are indeed comparable. It is known that in medicine, two kinds of medicine can differ from each other obviously only be a small difference. It is true that both salicylates and aspirin are members of the same chemical family, but even here exist several differences: the function, the people who can take it, whether it has side-effect. Perhaps salicylates only have effect on the young. Therefore, it is unwarranted that salicylates will work just as well as aspirin as for healing headaches.

In the second place, the arguer provides no guarantees that the survey on a study on headaches suffered is statistically reliable. Lacking information about the number of the survey and the number of respondents, it is impossible to assess the validity of the results. For example, if there were 2000 people surveyed but only 200 responded, the conclusion that a steady decline in the average number of headaches would be highly suspected. Another problem is the representative of the respondents: perhaps they are not representative of the overall group of people who take this survey.  Lacking such evidence the survey is statistically reliable the author cannot rely on it to draw any firm conclusion about whether the average number of headaches declines.

In the third place, Even though the average number of headaches declines really, we can not make sure that the reason of the decline is salicylates. There are maybe other alternatives to lead this. For example, the medicine level promotes highly; the living conditions become better; people live in a regular pace. In short, since the auger has not ruled out all other possible scenarios that might serve to the decline of in the average number of headaches. I just cannot take the recommendation seriously.

Last but not least, the auger makes the conclusion too arbitrary. He thinks that there will be a continued steady decline in the number of headaches. Even though salicylates can affect the headaches, there are many causes that can lead to the promotion in the average number of headaches, such as the high press in working, the sudden high pace in living and so on. From this, we know the auger should take more alternatives in to account to make this conclusion.

To sum up, the conclusion lacks of credibility. Regardless of who the author is, he or she has overlooked or chosen to ignore many aspects of his or her conclusion. To strengthen the conclusion, the author should give more evidences about the above-mentioned possibilities.