argument20 [7\8\910] 第九次作业

thepopdjUID: 2517220

20The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

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In this argument, the author suggests that the moped accidents can be reduction by 50 percent through limitation of moped rented. To support his viewpoint, the author cites a fact that the neighboring island of Torseau attained the half reduction in moped accidents by the similar limitation last years. I find this argument depend on several unsubstantiated ground.

First of all, I am not well convinced that limitation on moped bicycle rental companies would reduce the number of moped accidents. It is entirely possible that though the number of moped rental by these companies is limited from 50 to 30 per day, people can also gain moped through other method. Perhaps they would directly buy a new one from shops which the council still not circumscribe. As a result of this situation, the number of moped would not have a essential decrease, and then the moped accidents would not reduce as the author's thought.

In the second place, admittedly people do not buy moped in the shops, and the number of moped has reduced, but the author's curt assertion that the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the Torseau Island is also dubious. Firstly, the author provides no evidence to prove that limitation on moped rental from 50 to 30 per day would decrease the moped accidents by 50 percent. Secondly, perhaps the more concernful reason for moped accident is ignoring traffic rule by pedestrians, but not the number of bicycle. Additionally, there is no relationship between Balmer Island and its neighboring island. Maybe the two islands have distinct road condition that in Torseau Island roads are wide and flat while in Balmer Island roads are narrow and wandering. Therefore, without rule out these possibility, the author's assertion is not well supported.

Finally, even if the limit would work in this island, I can not also be persuaded to consider limit on moped as a good plan. As the author show that the population of Balmer Island increases to 100000 during the summer months, there is a possibility that just in summer months the number of moped accident increases. So council should set up more marks leading people to following traffic rule instead of restrict moped rentals. Maybe this plan ignored by the author would bring benefit to both moped companies and citizens.

To sum up, the author fails to prove that the limitation on moped would effectively reduce the number of moped accidents. To make this argument convincing, the author should provide more strong evidences that the limit would well work in Balmer Island, and this plan is the best one to make accident reduce by 50 percent.