[文以载道第二轮]Argument147 by piaopiao

piaopiao_0512UID: 2440006

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 452          TIME: 00:34:52          DATE: 2008-8-4 14:50:35

Syllabus:
1 样本无效力
2 卖不好的原因未说明
3 目标人群是否有购买力和意愿，竞争对手

In this argument, the author concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games (WVG) will increase dramatically in the next few months. To support his conclusion the author cites a survey in which suggests the game players take more interest in features like lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. He also points out the company has just introduced several games directed at people 10 to 25 years old. It seems well reasoned and logical organized, but after carefully scrutinizing, I find this argument suffer from several problematic flaws.

At the first place, the author cites an unreliable survey in the argument. We are informed no detail information about the respondents in the survey, what are the ages, incomes, and taste of games. Whether these respondents can fully be representative of the overall population is unknown. Perhaps some of the respondents who don't like lifelike graphics do not respond the survey. Perhaps the age of the respondents is below 10 or beyond 25, which are the main targets of the company games. Without information about the sample of the survey, the author can not conclude that the sales will increase merely relays on the survey.

Second, the author fails to establish a cause-effect relationship why the sales decrease, his assumption that the new advertisement will work effectively is unsubstantiated. It is equally possible that the clients refuse to buy the games because the quality of the price even the type of the games cannot satisfy the players. And if there exists any reason rather than the advertisement behind the incline, the arguer's conclusion will be undermined, and I cannot be convinced on such a reason.

Finally the company aims at the group age 10 to 25 years old, however we do not know whether this group value the features surveyed foregoing, or whether this group, probably most of them are students, have the financial ability and willingness to buy the new games. Further more, the author ignore that there must be other competitors sharing the game market, whether they have take the same action to promote they productions. Without ruling out all the possibilities mentioned above, the author can not persuade me the new strategy will success, let alone the sales will increase dramatically in the next few months.

To sum up, this argument lacks credibility. To bolster it the author should provide the number of the respondents in the survey, as well as the features of them. To better evaluation this strategy I need to know the reason why the sales in this company have declined. I would also have to be informed the 10 to 25 years old group indeed have willingness and abilities to buy the new productions.

[ 本帖最后由 piaopiao_0512 于 2008-8-4 21:44 编辑 ]