argument235 eaglewatch NO.2 第六次作业 冲刺

eaglewatchUID: 2374680

题目：ARGUMENT235 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.

"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."
字数：511          用时：0:30:00          日期：2008-8-6

In the memorandum, merely based on the unfounded assumptions and dubious evidence, the statement draws a conclusion that KNOW should shift programming from rock-and-roll music(RM) to a news format(NF). To substantiate the statement, the speaker cites several "facts" and "evidence" that: (1)the number of old people has increased, while the total number has declined; (2)music stores report decreased sales of recorded music; (3) NP in neighboring cities is successful, and recent election shows citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics. At the first glance, the argument appears to be somewhat convincing; however, the further reflection reveals that it omits several substantial concerns that should be addressed. In a word, the argument suffers from several flaws.

First and foremost, the arguer attempts to prove that the increasing number of old people will lead to the failure of radio station if they do not shift its programming. However, the arguers fails to provide information regarding to the appetite of the old--after all, it is entire possible that some older people like even love the RM as the younger. In addition, the fact that the total number of our listeners has declined maybe is the problem about the market itself , rather than the program-- that means there is no necessity to shift programming. Obviously, the arguer ignores these possibilities.

Secondly, the arguer claims that the decreased sales of recorded music implies that the decreased of listeners. As a matter of fact, even though, the older really dislike the RM totally, there is no relationship between the two factors. The quality of tapes results in the deceased sales of recorded music is caused. What is more, it is very likely that the one who refused to buy recorded music change their attitude into listen to the music. It is a pity that the arguer belittles this group of people, so that the appearance of assertion comes true.

Finally, the arguer proves its conclusion citing the fact that new station in neighboring has been successful and the survey taken before the election. Nevertheless, even if we should change our programming, whether we should shift it to NF is not sure. Firstly, the neighboring cities maybe are so different from ours in the area of economy, culture, and so on. Secondly, the survey lacks relative number to illustrate its point. Even the result can be believed, the survey does not provide the information that whether the tendency would continue--if not, changing the programming is not necessary and even should be avoided. However, the arguer fails to make a thorough and logical consideration about the above.

To sum up, the argument suffers from several flaws as we discussed above. To make the statement more convincing, the speaker would have provide more information about why the number of older people increased, and what result in that the total number of listeners has declined. What is more, he should have offered the reason why the recorded music sales declined. The last, he had better make a deeper survey concerning with that whether we should change our programming into the NF.