Argument5【超越自我小组】第五次作业--猪

liuyanggzUID: 2487660

The argument is well presented, but not yet well reasoned. It contains several facts that are questionable.

Firstly, the reliability of the statistics given at the very beginning which indicates that the number of peple with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million should be questioned. It’s an amticipated figure, without mentioning exactly where it comes from. Is it an official statistic or figure estimated by one or two hospitals? It’s unreasonable to draw any conclusion based on statistic in one or two hospital. The validity of the statistics, especially for future anticipation, will be critical for further conclusion.

In addition, even one accepts the estimated figure as a correct amticipation, the argument remains questionable. The argument assumes that a growing need for arthritis drugs will lead the producer of Xenon, the best selling drug for arthritis, BP( Becton Pharmaceutical) to be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. However, this is not necessarily the case. There are many factors besides sales volume that will effect the profit margin of a company, such as product range, cost control, new product development. Therefore, it’s unwarranted, without ruling out other factors that contributed the the profit of a pharmaceutical company, to say that BP will become the most profitable company in this industry.

Thirdly, the author’s recommendation of PP(Perkins Pharmaceutical) taking place of BP whose patent expires in three years rests on the unlikely assumption that there are no other strong competitive companies in the pharmaceutical market and no other technologies or medical methods to cure arthritis are developed during the three years. What if other pharmeceutical companies beside BP and PP take the market with advanced drugs for arthritis, or hospital adopt newly-developed treatment for patient that may decrease the amount of drug usage, even cure arthritis by physical treatment without drugs. Besides, even drug usage can be guaranted in the treatment of arthritis, the new drug named Xylan is not for sure to make PP most profitible company. Brand loyalty, customer preference to Xenon, buying habits etc, which customers formed during these three years, should be considered when ruling out the possiblity that BP will remain its leading role.

Fourthly, in evaluating the evidence of the survey, one must consider how the survey was conducted and how broad the survey was. It is unreasonable to draw any conclusion about the customer preference based only on the extreme cases of arthritis. Depending on the total number of patients suffering from arthritis, it is entirely possible that the population of extreme cases are not representatives at all. Thus the author’s recommendation that people will use Xylan instead might amount to poor indication of the pharmaceutical market.

In sum, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. The arugment can be improved by ruling out alternative factor that will make impact on profit margin and taking the other rival company besides the two into consideration. It could be further improved by providing persuasive holistic survey results.

hyukiezhuUID: 2291070

The argument is well presented, but not yet well reasoned. It contains several facts that are questionable.

Firstly, the reliability of the statistics given at the very beginning which indicates that the number of peple(people) with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million should be questioned. It’s an amticipated(anticipated) figure, without mentioning exactly where it comes from. Is it an official statistic or figure estimated by one or two hospitals? It’s unreasonable to draw any conclusion based on statistic in one or two hospital. The validity of the statistics, especially for future anticipation, will be critical for further conclusion.(质疑的内容是对的，但是貌似有点啰嗦，有那么两三句话的内容是重复的)

In addition, even （好像应该加个though表是就算……的意思）one accepts the estimated figure as a correct amticipation(anticipated), the argument remains questionable. The argument assumes that a growing need for arthritis drugs will lead the producer of Xenon, the best selling drug for arthritis, BP( Becton Pharmaceutical) to be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. However, this is not necessarily the case. There are many factors besides sales volume that will effect the profit margin of a company, such as product range, cost control, new product development. Therefore, it’s unwarranted, without ruling out other factors that contributed the the（去掉） profit of a pharmaceutical company, to say that BP will become the most profitable company in this industry.

Thirdly, the author’s recommendation of PP(Perkins Pharmaceutical) taking place of BP whose patent expires in three years rests on the unlikely assumption that there are no other strong competitive companies in the pharmaceutical market and no other technologies or medical methods to cure arthritis are developed during the three years. What if other pharmeceutical （pharmaceutical ）companies beside BP and PP take the market with advanced drugs for arthritis, or hospital adopt newly-developed treatment for patient that may decrease the amount of drug usage, even cure arthritis by physical treatment without drugs. Besides, even drug usage can be guaranted (guarantied) in the treatment of arthritis, the new drug named Xylan is not for sure to make PP most profitible（profitable） company. Brand loyalty, customer preference to Xenon, buying habits etc, which customers formed during these three years, should be considered when ruling out the possiblity (possibility) that BP will remain its leading role.

Fourthly, in evaluating the evidence of the survey, one must consider how the survey was conducted and how broad the survey was. It is unreasonable to draw any conclusion about the customer preference based only on the extreme cases of arthritis. Depending on the total number of patients suffering from arthritis, it is entirely possible that the population of extreme cases are(is) not representatives at all. Thus the author’s recommendation that people will use Xylan instead might amount to poor indication of the pharmaceutical market.

In sum, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. The arugment（argument） can be improved by ruling out alternative factor that will make impact on profit margin and taking the other rival company besides the two into consideration. It could be further improved by providing persuasive holistic survey results.